Edmonton Oilers vs. Los Angeles Kings Series Betting Preview & Picks

As historic as some teams were this year, nobody could keep pace with the Edmonton Oilers over the season’s final six weeks. Since the trade deadline, the Oilers went on an absurd 17-2-1 run, out-pacing the Boston Bruins and every other team in the NHL. 

Now, they’ll have to maintain that play against the Los Angeles Kings in the opening round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Edmonton’s surprising run has shot them to the top of the betting boards at FanDuel Sportsbook. The second-place finishers enter the postseason with the second-best odds to claim the Western Conference banner and the third-best odds to claim their first league Championship since 1989-90. 

Standing in their way is a Kings squad they can’t look past in Round 1. 

• Game 1: EDM vs. LAK – April 17 @ 10 pm ET
• Game 2: EDM vs. LAK – April 19 @ 10 pm ET
• Game 3: LAK vs. EDM – April 21 @ 10 pm ET
• Game 4: LAK vs. EDM – April 23 @ 9 pm ET
• *Game 5: EDM vs. LAK – April 25 @ TBD
• *Game 6: LAK vs. EDM – April 29 @ TBD
• *Game 7: EDM vs. LAK – May 1 @ TBD 

The Oilers achieved success thanks to solid analytics play. As such, it comes from a somewhat sustainable place. As expected, Edmonton’s offense carried the team, averaging 12.6 high-danger and 26.9 scoring chances per game over their last 20 regular season games. However, the improved offensive efficiency didn’t come at the expense of defensive structure. The Oilers were out-chanced in scoring and high-danger opportunities in just five of those contests. 

Consequently, Edmonton didn’t overachieve relative to its underlying metrics. Simply, they were that much better than their opponents to end the campaign. The Oilers’ five-on-five shooting percentage across that span was 10.2%, with an overall rate of 13.0%. Both were only marginally above their respective season-long averages of 9.1% and 11.8%. More importantly, the Oilers are sitting pretty with a PDO of 1.006.

Still, we can’t look past the Kings’ accomplishments, as they have their own noteworthy achievements. Los Angeles finished top ten in expected goals-for-percentage, thanks to quality play on both ends of the ice. In the attacking zone, the Kings attempted the tenth-most quality chances and 12th-most scoring opportunities. But their defensive play sets them apart and is a strength the Kings will need to exhaust against the mighty Oilers. 

LA allowed the fifth-fewest high-danger chances in the NHL, holding opponents to an average of 8.7 per game. That standard was on full display over the final couple of weeks of the regular season. The Kings limited teams to nine or fewer quality opportunities in six of seven, with a rolling average of 6.7. 

If the Kings stand any chance of advancing past the Oilers, they will need to sustain that defensive structure.

• Oilers -245
• Total Series Games – 6 +205

Even with exceptional defensive play, we can’t look past the Kings’ shortcomings in net. Joonas Korpisalo is the projected starter for LA in Game 1. Although he looked good early in his tenure with the Kings, he’s struggled down the stretch, stopping just 86.4% of shots over the final three outings of the season. 

With Edmonton’s offense operating as efficiently as it has down the stretch, we’re not anticipating the Kings to keep pace. The Oilers have made short work of quality opponents to end the year, but the Kings have some fight in them. We’re betting this one gets sorted out in six games, with Edmonton punching its ticket to the second round.