English Premier League: Betting Odds and Saturday-Sunday Picks as Arsenal Takes Command at Sportsbooks

Liverpool F.C. vs Chelsea F.C. (Saturday, January 21)

It was impossible to imagine that Liverpool F.C. and Chelsea F.C., headed into what would otherwise be a marquee Premier League match-up at Anfield, would be tied in mid-table position with 28 points each at the midway mark of the season, behind the leaders by a whopping 19 points. Maybe it is a good reminder of the advantage WagerBop’s users have over non-gaming soccer followers, many of whom will go into Saturday’s fixture despondent over the prospect of either team standing in the bottom half of the English Premier League after more disorganized outings. For the profit-minded among us, Reds vs Blues is an opportunity to examine the pulse and heart rate of 2 ailing royals of the sport.

Liverpool’s appearance in a loss to Brighton & Hove Albion on Saturday has been slammed as the worst Reds performance in recent memory, and it is not as if Reds are suffering some monumental rash of injuries on the pitch. Against Brighton, Salah played at forward for the entire match, while names like Jordan Henderson and his fellow Three Lions recruit Trent Alexander-Arnold toiled behind him. But each of the 2 latter-mentioned footballers took a yellow card as Seagulls won the shot-total 9 to 2.

The hosts on this Saturday nevertheless stand as popular (-120) money-line favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook, with the number even shrinking a little bit further into the minus-odds range since the opening of bets in the market. Is that because the site’s users sentimentally prefer Reds no matter what, or because Blues have had an even worse go of it following the 2022 FIFA World Cup? You decide.

No question Chelsea remains too dangerous in the circumstances of a single big bout for those pricey Reds picks to equal a sure thing. But the club’s Champions League draw has been so fortuitous, and Chelsea was knocked out of tournament play in England so handily that any long-term sunshine from the lack of difficult schedule turns is offset by gloomy, immediate clouds and almost no wins versus highly-ranked opponents from anywhere on the continent. Chelsea’s form has been so questionable in winter that Blues gave away 7 points to Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest, and Fulham within a span of 4 Premier League kickoffs. FanDuel handicaps goals-scored against shaky back lines on both teams, offering just (-150) Over/Under odds on the high side of standard O/U (2.5) total goals picks.

The extended injury absence of Christian Pulisic is not a reason to pick Blues’ generous odds by and of itself. The USMNT almost never makes it through a Blues cycle (or a World Cup) without getting nicked, and Blues retain enough quality to score against Reds, given that Saturday’s action in midfield will be nowhere close to FIFA-worthy. But the superior pick is Over (2.5) in spite of New York’s thin betting line on that type of conclusion.

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (2.5)

Leicester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion (Saturday, January 21)

If the bookmakers’ markets for Reds on Saturday are oddly thin, Brighton & Hove Albion (brief pause for some of Robert Plant’s wailing) must be insulted to see plus-odds at sportsbooks on the team’s winning chances at King Power Stadium. Seagulls (+100) is fresh off corking Reds in a match that was anything but a “corker,” and it is not as if Brighton’s solid, improving form has only been responsible for just a single breathtaking win. Seagulls opened 2022-23’s league slate by beating Red Devils, and later defeated Blues 4-1 in a Halloween-themed match in which the Chelsea breakdown was macabre indeed.

Brighton does not have any prohibitively good strikers in Salah’s class, which makes sportsbook users shy of driving Seagulls’ odds to win into the minus range. Yet Leandro Trossard, the Belgian forward, has scored as many goals as Salah this Premiership season, while also helping Brighton out as a midfield defender. From a practical, short-term point of view, there is no more solid 1-to-1 pick in the EP than Seagulls.

Following last calendar year’s embarrassing 5-2 loss at Falmer Stadium, betting odds are pointing to a noble effort from Leicester City. Experts anticipate that Leicester City (+260) could awaken on home turf after playing most of its matches away from home following the FIFA World Cup. But in Leicester’s most recent English Premier League bout at King Power, Foxes fell to Fulham F.C. in dull fashion and put the club in peril of double-digit losses at merely the halfway mark of a cycle. Leicester’s attack has been rendered invisible through several bouts, including an FA Cup mismatch vs Gillingham, in which Leicester eked out a 1-0 victory and committed 11 fouls to the disciplined Gills’ 4 tackling violations.

Brighton & Hove Albion comes to Leicester City’s lair having scored 20 goals in 5 matches across all events.

WagerBop’s Pick: Brighton (+100)

AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest (Saturday, January 21)

A scuffle of “lightweights” is anything but one as opposing AFC Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest come into Saturday with solid EPL ledgers for 2022-23. Perhaps appropriately, the FanDuel odds on each team-to-prevail are matched exactly at (+170) money lines, while a Draw (+220) outcome is not far from handicappers’ minds, with Bournemouth posting so many tied scores this cycle on the Premiership ledger.

Many wonder whether Bournemouth’s home-ground advantage will lead to continued dominance over Nottingham after Cherries had the latter team’s number throughout much of the last 2 years in League Championship action. The historical record is all well and good, and noisy host supporters are even better, but there is no getting past Nottingham Forest’s superior record in recent league bouts. Bournemouth, supposedly a “draw machine” in domestic play this cycle, has lost 6 times in a row across all competitions, and never once in a penalty tiebreaker. Tricky Trees have simply taken 7 much-needed points from the pockets of the rich, or at least Chelsea, Southampton, and Leicester, in the same time frame of Cherries’ potentially costly fizzle in form.

WagerBop’s Pick: Nottingham Forest (+170)

Manchester City vs Wolverhampton (Sunday, January 22nd)

Readers must not expect to find Manchester City vs Wolverhampton predictions on this week’s English Premier League scroll (though our man Nikola might take a late-week stab at it) since City is also facing Tottenham Hotspur in a midweek match that could change the EPL top tier’s narrative yet again prior to this weekend.

But it is interesting to marvel at sportsbook users’ everlasting confidence in Sky Blues of Man City, which is handicapped as a (-600) favorite on Sunday over visiting Wolves.

Tottenham’s trademark roller-coaster form could even be a sure bet to produce goals on Thursday, given how shaky Man City’s lineup appears at all three depths. It would be easy enough to write off the defeat to Southampton as a sign of Pep Guardiola’s focus on winning domestic competitions of higher prestige, something in question a few years ago as Sky Blues seemed geared up for international play first and foremost. But conversely, we have grown used to watching Manchester City’s second-choice lineups crush minnows in early-round tournament action, a specter that has gone missing along with City’s league prosperity.

Wanderers are slowly climbing out of a terrible slump and carry a liberal (+2) goal spread with (+135) payout odds on the outcome of a 1-goal defeat or more.

Arsenal vs Manchester United (Sunday, January 22)

Supporters of Man United and Arsenal are wondering what manna in the desert has come upon them. Bouts between the formerly ailing sides have been an exercise in frustration, gnashed teeth, and regret for years, not because Gunners (-105) and Red Devils (+270) do not make well-matched opponents, but because of each team’s substandard placement.

That is now changed as each brand surges into the kickoff on Sunday. The final stretch of winter matches for Arsenal is off to a successful start; Gunners whipped Tottenham Hotspurs 2-0 on Sunday to go ahead of Manchester City by a tremendous 8 points. Hotspurs, already known as an up-and-down team in marquee fixtures, scored a humiliating own-goal early in the opening half to hand Gunners the keys to another victory. Still, an earned 3 points against a top-half opponent serves as another practical reason for bettors to flock to Arsenal. Even a single point earned in the club’s next engagement with MUFC going into the FA Cup break would set Gunners up to potentially lead the Premier League table by 10+ points following early-February bouts with relative lightweights like Everton F.C.

Now that Ronaldo is out of the picture, Red Devils are working on an all-competitions invincible streak that now has a victory over Sky Blues on the ledger. Marcus Rashford was said to be on Erik ten Hag’s bad side recently, but the striker’s winner vs Man City puts Man United into the trophy conversation. MUFC was held back by José Mourinho’s temperament, an interim coach’s limitations, the flakiness of an aging Ronaldo, and the sheer dominance of Sky Blues in the early 2020s. However, it now appears that Red Devils have a formula at just the right time, as City and Liverpool each labor to produce Premier League points.

Gamblers will be drawn to Manchester United (+1) at close to 1-to-1 odds, a practical steal from FanDuel Sportsbook if, in fact, Red Devils find ways to keep Emirates Stadium subdued. But do not overlook (+112) payoff odds for Under (2.5) goals between United and Arsenal, given a match that could be played at World Cup quality on the back lines … which is something you just can’t say about other top Premier League pairings right now.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (2.5)

Kurt has authored close to 1000 stories covering football, soccer, basketball, baseball, ice hockey, prize-fighting and the Olympic Games. Kurt posted a 61% win rate on 200+ college and NFL gridiron picks last season. He muses about High School football on social media as The Gridiron Geek.