EPL Matchweek 31: FanDuel's Saturday-Sunday Premier League Odds and Winning Prop Bets
WagerBop has spent a lot of time examining the top of the Premiership table this year, but bettors can make just as much money from understanding the dregs of the points-standings too. The 2022-23 English Premier League table has been so tightly bunched below its top 5 teams that there are no genuine mathematical favorites to relegate back to Championship in 2023, just clubs that analysts perceive to be playing the worst football out of all but a maximum of 2 other elite-tier representatives.
That principle is soon to change for Southampton, if Saints are unable to put some victories on the April ledger, for the club’s 4-point deficit to Everton has become a nagging negative that places each week’s lineup under more and more desperate pressure to find the net.
Premier League Game Odds, Previews, and Picks This Weekend
Southampton F.C. vs Crystal Palace (Saturday, April 15th)
Southampton, with fixtures against Arsenal, Newcastle United, and Liverpool still to appear in, is drawing grim (-700) futures odds to be relegated at the end of 38 matches. Even so, there will be chances for Saints to escape the hole they’re in, a bright spot that is reflected by this week’s (+175) money-line on Saints to defeat Eagles (+165) of CPFC at St. Mary’s Stadium.
Southampton briefly fought back against Manchester City in a 4-1 drubbing that represented Saints’ most recent, painful host-league appearance. Nevertheless, this Saturday’s hosts drew 3-3 with visiting Tottenham Hotspur in a scintillating corker on March 18th, a sign that on home turf, Saints might be vibing a “now or never” attitude going into the next match.
Palace is a frustrating sort of opponent for must-win fixtures, though Saints supporters need not worry about Eagles running away with several tallies in a spare few minutes, as was the case with Sky Blues’ taking of 3 points in the last St. Mary’s engagement. CPFC’s defending has restricted goal production to scores of 1-0 and 1-2 against Southampton this year, leading to FanDuel Sportsbook’s pricey line of (-154) odds on Under (2.5) total goals-scored between Southampton and Palace this weekend.
But as those odds are also reflected in tight Draw money-lines of 2-to-1, someone at FanDuel has forgotten to apply the likely “0-0” or “1-1” handicap to the “odds and evens” prop betting board, offering “even” goals prop bets at slightly higher than 1-to-1 chances.
WagerBop’s Pick: Even Total Goals (“Goals” Prop Bet) (-124)
Everton F.C. vs Fulham F.C. (Saturday, April 15th)
Goodison Park has inspired another upside-down Premiership market this season, or at least in an opposing rapport with the league points table.
Everton Football Club is still in danger of getting relegated to English Championship after falling 2-0 to MUFC in the prior Premier League round, while Fulham F.C. is still in 10th place and hoping for a historic top-half finish as a promoted club in 2022-23. Nevertheless, host Everton (+100) is Saturday’s run-away favorite next to visiting Fulham (+280), as Cottagers once more take the pitch as a 3-to-1 underdog wager.
Followers of Toffeemen would counter that there are solid reasons for the sportsbook odds. Cottagers manager Marco Silva may not have fallen prey to the recent “sacking festival” of unsuccessful (and a few somewhat successful) EPL coaches, but he has several first-team injuries to deal with, on top of the fresh suspension of his striker Aleksandar Mitrovic. Everton’s ailing side going up against a promoted lineup full of reserves could satisfy the old “resist-able force meeting move-able object” punch line, except that Toffeemen have arguably turned a corner by refusing to go down easy in a series of recent draws against elite opposition while conquering Brentford and taking points from Chelsea and Tottenham.
The last 2 cycles have been characterized by emotional Toffees results against marquee rivals, then “mysterious” pitfalls against lower-ranked lineups. Fulham’s standard odds and a goal taken to boot make FanDuel Sportsbook’s underdog spread too promising to bypass.
WagerBop’s Pick: Fulham ATS (+1) (-125)
Manchester City vs Leicester City (Saturday, April 15th)
Man City has run into sudden skepticism in UEFA Champions League odds, as a quarter-final draw against Bayern Munich gives City the toughest path possible through to the semi-final round. But the bout odds for the quarter-final round show that Man City’s believers have not really gone anywhere. They are just passing on long-term odds to pick a money-line. Sky Blues are a (-135) money-line favorite to win the opening tie over visiting Bayern, with the German club drawing its longest odds in months at just (+350) odds to go ahead on aggregate goals this Tuesday.
Manchester City’s odds of winning EPL fixtures are tacking even pricier as the club fine-tunes its form. On Saturday Sky Blues are a (-650) money-line favorite over Foxes (+1100), the latter team in dire threat of relegation less than 10 years after winning it all.
The weekend’s FanDuel Sportsbook markets include straight 1-to-1 odds on O/U (3.5) total goals, as Sky Blues begins to strut their strength of previous seasons in blowing-away lesser squads by eye-popping final scores. Erling Haaland is a (-240) “minus” odds pick to score.
WagerBop’s Pick: First Half (“Half With Most Goals” Prop Bet) (+210)
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United (Sunday, April 16th)
Red Devils of Manchester United have solidified their rank as a potential Champions League qualifiers, taking 6 points from the club’s most recent pair of Premier League bouts while still poised for possible championship runs in the UEFA Europa League and FA Cup playoffs. What’s more, MUFC remains among the most fashionable betting picks found anywhere in Europe or the Americas. If the 1-to-1 line on Everton to beat Southampton owes itself in part to wishful thinking from Everton supporters who have not seen their club flourish in 2 seasons, then any Red Devils money-line should be viewed with even more skepticism for the same reasons. So, why is Sunday’s line on Man United (-170) priced cautiously enough to give Tricky Trees of Nottingham Forest (+460) better than 5-to-1 odds to win?
The Tricky Trees’ upset meter outpaces the club’s meager T-17 standing when appearing at home. Nottingham has drawn with Manchester City and Chelsea, conquered Leeds United and Leicester City by clean-sheet scores, and defeated Wolverhampton in tournament play at City Ground, all within the calendar year of 2023. Tricky Trees shocked Reds of Liverpool 1-0 on a goal from the undervalued striker Taiwo Awoniyi last October.
The schedule crunch for MUFC may be the other likely angle behind Man United’s middling odds, which includes a Europa League kickoff and an FA Cup contest, followed by a high-pressure trip to Tottenham in less than a fortnight after Sunday’s fixture.
On the other hand, those scheduled battles could more likely lead to a conservative game plan from Red Devils’ coach Erik ten Hag than to produce a fatal distraction for a club that’s used to multiple competitions, and which has not yet endured its coming challenges.
Foretelling a dull match against the wishful-thinking of hype artists (not every match with “Manchester” in it can be a corker, after all) makes for a safer betting-pick handicap than trying to quantify Red Devils’ added challenge-to-come in April as the far busier team.
WagerBop’s Pick: Under (2.5) (+116)
