FA Cup Semi-Final Betting Odds: Man City vs Sheffield Prop Bet Pick and Brighton vs MUFC Money-Line Prediction
2023 FA Cup Semi-Final Odds and Best Picks
Sat. (April 22): Manchester City vs Sheffield United
The clouds are clearing for Manchester City after a winter filled with questions, quandaries, and quickly drawn final scores that would potentially have been 5-goal blowouts in years past.
Sky Blues are just 4 points shy of the English Premier League lead with 3 goals ahead on aggregate against Bayern Munich and a match-to-play in hand on frontrunner Arsenal Football Club. A victory against another EPL or UEFA side isn’t even necessary for Citizens to reach the 2023 FA Cup Final, a match that could very well turn into a curious “Manchester derby” that just happens to be played at Wembley Stadium in London rather than in Manchester.
Manchester City has embarrassed teams like Liverpool, Newcastle, and RB Leipzig on home grounds this spring while beating Arsenal in tournament play and league play alike. Citizens’ midfield, still led by the ageless Kevin de Bruyne, is once again harassing and countering opponents so swiftly and with such grace that entire halves of football can appear to be more like one long, ragged Man City possession. There is one sticking point that Pep Guardiola has to get through, however, and that’s that City is still playing its way through an all-competition schedule that 2023’s immediate rivals Arsenal (and Sheffield United) won’t have to weather the fatigue from. Manchester City already hosted Bayern and battled Leicester (both times successfully, without a doubt) within a span of a few days. Now, Guardiola’s team must play an FA Cup semi-final 4 days before warring with Arsenal, and that’s after Man City visits Bayern for a back leg, though a 3-0 lead will provide some breathing room.
It won’t affect the odds so much, at least not until mishaps actually occur, and when City is taking on a team more dangerous than English Championship representatives. Sheffield United is almost sure not to inspire an underdog gambling rush against Erling Haaland and Sky Blues. FanDuel’s FA Cup odds give Manchester City a prohibitive (-950) money-line to defeat Sheffield (+1500) this weekend and advance onward to Wembley’s climax against either Man United or Brighton & Hove Albion.
Man City is also a (-2) goal favorite on the sportsbook’s patented 3-way spread with about 1-to-1 payout odds. A classic Manchester City romp is considered so likely that the bookmaker is selling Over (3.5) picks at (-122) odds which, compared to the Under (3.5) and (-112) alternatives, is a much costlier offering.
Blades’ English Championship record-to-date and 36 goals-allowed in league play this season have helped the club retain the stubborn defending identity it’s been showcasing in recent Premier League play. But the team looked shaky against a recent top-tier representative on April 10th, losing to Burnley Football Club 0-2 after suffering a dreadful red-card and fielding just 10 footballers for almost the entire game. There were plenty of frantic episodes and back-line breakdowns during Sheffield’s FA Cup quarter-final win over Blackpool Rovers, as Blades ended up depending on English youngster Tommy Doyle’s added-time goal to survive onward.
WagerBop’s Pick: “No” (“Both Teams to Score” Prop Bet) (+112)
Sun. (April 23): Brighton & Hove Albion vs Manchester United
The tight odds for Brighton vs MUFC this Sunday stand in stark contrast to the “David vs Goliath” offerings for Saturday’s fixture. Brighton has been a lively minnow in the English FA Cup, in fact, it’s hard to call teams who’ve improved their Premier League table standing to 7th place “minnows” anymore.
Man United has a big, fat fish to wrestle with in hostile waters this week. Brighton most recently beat Christian Pulisic and Chelsea Football Club at Stamford Bridge by a 2-1 score, the same tally by which MUFC lost to Seagulls.
Still, it’s a bit of a shock to see Brighton carrying money-line markets with (+130) odds. Aristocrats like Red Devils are faded by the betting public in early-round domestic tournament action, as coaches like Erik ten Hag hedge their bets with second-best lineups and hope to advance by ordinary scores. April’s semi-final round is a little late for that angle to be in effect, however, and so Man United is expected to play foil to Brighton based on the sheer quality that Seagulls’ starting-11 brings to the table.
The solo statistics boasted by Marcus Rashford with Man United this cycle are more than threatened by a quartet of strikers in Brighton’s lineup, with 7+ goals each on the season. Additionally, ten Hag’s overture to the media that “every Red Devils match is a final” until late May isn’t necessarily the best way to motivate an MUFC team which, as usual, is struggling to remain focused on positives in spite of a modestly successful year. Popular MUFC back-liner Lisandro Martinez was severely injured and wound up in the hospital for immediate surgery last Thursday,
Rashford is a (+170) prop bet to score during Sunday’s fixture. FanDuel’s (-142) odds on Over (2.5) total goals anticipate a lively match, but not nearly the kind of eye-popping goal total that Manchester City is expected to produce if Sheffield doesn’t have its best day. United draws a 3-to-1 betting line to win the FA Cup compared to the dominant (-185) line given for Sky Blues.
WagerBop thinks the match’s regulation-time draw market of (+250) odds is overlooked, and thus slightly more generous than it should be given the amount of pressure each team is under to strike well.
WagerBop’s Pick: Draw (+250)
Kurt has authored close to 1000 stories covering football, soccer, basketball, baseball, ice hockey, prize-fighting and the Olympic Games. Kurt posted a 61% win rate on 200+ college and NFL gridiron picks last season. He muses about High School football on social media as The Gridiron Geek.
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