ESPN Chalk's guide to betting Game 2 of 2016 NBA Finals
LAS VEGAS -- The NBA Finals tipped off Thursday night and the Golden State Warriors took Game 1 from the Cleveland Cavaliers 104-89.
Of course, this is ESPN Chalk, and this is our NBA Finals Betting Guide, so we're just as concerned with the betting results -- and with the fact that the Warriors pulled away to cover as six-point home favorites and that the game stayed under the betting total of 211 points.
The results continued a postseason trend
As Game 1 ended, sportsbooks here in Las Vegas and offshore posted their lines for Sunday's Game 2, and they were nearly unanimous in increasing the point spread to Golden State -6.5 (the Wynn Las Vegas was the lone exception in Vegas, sticking with Golden State -6). After the total points in Game 1 never came close to flirting with 211, the over/under for Game 2 opened anywhere from 206 to 207.5. As far as the series price, at the Westgate, it increased to Warriors -400/Cavaliers +320 after closing Warriors -210/Cavaliers +180 before Game 1.
As of Saturday morning, the Warriors are still a pretty solid 6.5-point favorite (though the Boyd Gaming books have gone to -7, and the Wynn has held the line at -6), with the over/under drifting up to a consensus of 208 (and even higher at 208.5 at the Westgate).
Erin Rynning and yours truly, Dave Tuley, are back to preview Game 2 from a betting perspective. Rynning called the series opener correctly in our Game 1 Betting Guide with his lean on the Warriors while I lost with the Cavaliers, though I did have a winning lean on the under (I wish I had made a stronger case and bet more, however).
Here's our take on Sunday's Game 2 (ABC, 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT).
Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors
(Warriors lead 1-0)
Westgate series price: Warriors -400/Cavaliers +330
Westgate Game 2 lines: Warriors -6.5; over/under 208
Rynning: In my Game 1 analysis, I noted that it would perhaps take a game for the Cavaliers to ratchet up their intensity to a level at which they could compete with the Warriors in this series. Thursday's game essentially played out this way. Now we'll see if the Cavaliers can crank up their play to make this a competitive series. Game 1 played out with the Warriors in a much better state concerning individual matchups, especially when compared to their Western Conference series against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Defense figured to be one of the biggest differences in this series, and it played out with the Warriors shooting 49 percent to the Cavaliers' 38 percent in Game 1. Of course, the Warriors did all this with the Splash Brothers combining for just 20 points on 8-of-27 shooting from the floor. Eventually, the well-rounded and balanced Warriors took apart the Cavaliers in methodical fashion. The evidence from Game 1 adds to my firm outlook to back the Warriors in this series, but if they're going to win it at all, this is the game for the Cavaliers to make the necessary adjustments for a better showing in Game 2 while garnering the underdog points. I'll pass on the side.
It's well-known that Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue continues to plead with his team to turn the pace up. Yes, a more up-tempo game could play into the Warriors' hands, but it seems this is the direction the Cavaliers would like to go -- particularly coming off their 89-point showing in Game 1. Another modification the Cavaliers expect to make is getting Channing Frye more minutes, which should provide them an offensive boost as well. I'll look for more offense from both teams in Game 2 and lean over the total.
Game 2 pick: Lean over 208.5
Tuley: The Cavaliers didn't fire back fresh in Game 1, as I was expecting they would. The Warriors' defense had a lot to do with that, but the misuse of Frye (one shot in seven minutes) and J.R. Smith (just three shots, all from 3-point range, in 36 minutes) also played a huge factor. The question is, can the Cavaliers turn things around in Game 2? I've written a lot about the zigzag theory, which argues for betting the straight-up loser of the previous game against the spread in the next game. I've discussed how it's closer to 50/50 in recent years and is, in fact 32-32-1 ATS this postseason. The one subset of the rule that has continued to have success is in Game 2s, at 204-159-13 (56.2 percent) since 1991, but even that hit a brick wall this postseason as Game 1 losers are only 4-9-1 ATS in Game 2s this postseason.
Still, I'll go with the long-term trend and take the Cavaliers to bounce back, assuming they make the necessary adjustments as Rynning pointed out. I also believe that even if Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson bounce back from their subpar Game 1, the Warriors won't get 45 points from their bench again. The Cavaliers definitely need more from Smith and Frye to spread the Golden State defense, which would allow LeBron James to get back to dominating in the paint.
As for the over/under, after easily cashing on the under in Game 1, I was expecting an adjustment in Game 2 -- but I'm happy to see the total starting to drift back up. There still appears to be value on the under, as I don't think the oddsmakers have caught up with the trend of 7-3-1 in hitting the under in games between these two teams over the past two seasons, including the playoffs.
Game 2 picks: Cavaliers +6.5, lean to under 208.5.
