NHL Betting Guide: Monday 5/8/23

Like Friday, this one-game slate seems pretty inefficient. However, an interesting goaltending trend might -- might -- be worth a dart tonight.

I'll wait for official starting netminders, but this isn't the day to deploy a full unit. Here's the lean for tonight's game.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Header links are to numberFire's betting model for each game. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Under 6.5 (+112) - Lean

numberFire's model feels great about this line. It thinks the under hits 60.7% of the time.

I'm not as certain, but there's definitely a case. These two teams have totaled 6.85 expected goals per 60 minutes thus far, but that doesn't automatically write off the under in this spot. That number with poor goaltending would be a shootout, but that wasn't what we saw in Game 2.

Edmonton's posted 1.75 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) in that one, stopping 30 of 31 shots from the Golden Knights. The problem? At -2.50 GSAx for the postseason (fourth-worst in the NHL), I don't know if we can routinely expect that sort of effort.

Still, I will fire a half-unit at this under if gets the nod for Vegas. Hill posted 0.23 GSAx in relief duty on Saturday, and personally, it was only a matter of time before he replaced (-0.93 GSAx in the postseason) if healthy.

With Brossoit, I'd certainly rather play this under than the hefty juice on an elevated postseason total, but I'd feel much better if Vegas made the switch.