Expect the putter to heat up for Scottie Scheffler at Colonial
The thundershowers expected in the Fort Worth area never materialized but partly cloudy skies and very little wind have held true at the Charles Schwab Challenge - and this has led to some better than expected scoring at Colonial Country Club through the first two rounds.
Earlier in the week, the 72-hole Winning Score proposition bet was widely available at 266.5, meaning the UNDER would be a winning score of 14 under par or better and the OVER being 13 under or worse. Despite the storms not showing up and softening up this golf course, the scoring is still on an Under 266.5 pace with your leader, Harry Hall, already at 12 under through 36 holes.
Hall was the First Round Leader, firing a 62 on Thursday that was four shots better than his next closest competitor. He backed that up with a 66 in Round 2 and now, entering the weekend, leads the tournament by three shots.
Pre-tournament favorite, Dallas-area resident and University of Texas alum, Scottie Scheffler, shot an opening-round 67 and followed that up with another 67 on Friday. Heading into the weekend, Scheffler is six strokes off the pace but is still at the short price of +350 to win, just behind Hall.
+1600: Byeong-Hun An, Justin Rose
Harris English sits in second place at 9 under, three behind Hall. Emiliano Grillo, who has finished third, eighth, and 19th here in the past, is at 8 under and alone in third place. Adam Schenk, Robbie Shelton, Byeong-Hun An, Andrew Novak, Carson Young, Austin Eckroat, Justin Rose and Scheffler round out the top 10 on the leaderboard.
Outside of those players sitting in the top 10, not many others have been able to make much of a move. It looks like more of the same as far as the weather goes this weekend. High temperatures in the low 80's with no rain expected and just a breath of wind, under 10 MPH, is what is being forecasted currently. So who are we forecasting to go on and contend for the title - and who are we figuring on to take a fall or come up short?
Here's a look at my plays and angles at the halfway point, with odds via BetMGM:
I'm not so sure that Scheffler goes on to win this, but it is very hard to say that he won't be in contention with a chance to win on Sunday as he seemingly is every week when he is in the field. What builds a good case for him that he will win this week is the fact that he has been awful with the putter for the first two days, ranking 67th out of 72 players in this field for SG: Putting. Everything else has been nails, ranking No. 1 in SG: Tee to Green and Off the Tee. He's fourth in Scrambling and 15th in SG Approach.
It is likely that the putter turns around for the better and Scheffler is once again in the mix down the stretch on Sunday. My only reservation here is if he will finally experience a little fatigue after yet another grind at the top of the leaderboard last week at the PGA Championship. We'll see, but I tend to lean with him having yet another successful weekend.
English has been really steady through two days, doing everything well. He's fourth in this field for SG: Approach and seventh for Greens in Regulation. He's No. 1 for Driving Accuracy, second in SG: Tee to Green, and 35th in SG: Putting. Nothing stands out as a red flag. If he keeps going as he has been, he ought to be right there.
He is also the type of player I like for this golf course. I used Sea Island, home to the RSM Classic, Waialae (Sony Open), and Harbour Town (RBC Heritage) as correlated courses in my handicap this week. English has three Top 10 finishes at the Sony, and one each at both Harbour Town and Sea Island. He also has two Top 5 finishes in his career here at Colonial. Finally, English missed the cut at the PGA Championship last week. The extra rest could serve him well this weekend.
This would be my longer shot play and it sets up as a similar situation here with Rose as we have with Scheffler. Rose too was in the throws of that battle last week at Oak Hill and the physical and mental toll that took. Will he too eventually experience some fatigue is a question we have to ask. He leads this field in SG: Approach and in Greens in Regulation through two rounds but like Scheffler, ranks 69th in SG Putting. Rose is 20th on TOUR in SG: Putting, so I have to believe that is going to turn to the positive and that makes him a good candidate to compete for this title. Rose is also a former winner at Colonial and a U.S. Open winner as well. Having hosted the U.S. Open in 1941, it is my belief that Colonial can be a good indicator of U.S. Open success, so it makes perfect sense that Rose is good fit for this golf course and off to a solid start.
While the putter has been escaping Scheffler and Rose it is absolutely carrying Harry Hall. He is second in this field after 36 holes in SG: Putting. He's gaining nearly seven strokes on the field with the flat stick. While it is likely that Scheffler and Rose improve in this area, it is not likely that Hall maintains this torrid pace. The short game has really been firing in total as Hall ranks fourth in this field for SG: Around the Green and seventh in Scrambling - but elsewhere the numbers don't look like someone who is 12 under par or leading by three shots. He is 22nd in SG Off the Tee, 24th for SG Approach, and he's missing roughly 43% of fairways, ranking 43rd for Driving Accuracy. It is very hard to place so much pressure on one's short game like this for all four days. I believe ultimately it is Hall who takes the fall down the leaderboard and has the winner's circle elude him.
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