2024 Players Championship golf pool picks, field: Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau among our picks

The Players Championship provides a tough test for golfers this week, despite losing some of its “Fifth Major” flair thanks to notable PGA Tour departures. Some would say those departures are why The Players got a major (pun fully intended) payout increase in 2023. The winner will earn $4.5 million; the $25 million purse is the biggest of the year for a PGA Tour event. The consolation prize for players finishing in the top five is at least $1 million.

TPC Sawgrass is one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour. It requires precise ball striking and a bit of luck to win. The previous four champions (Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith, Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy) are a who’s who of professional golf. Weaker golfers are often washed away in the hazards or on the nerve-wracking No. 17 island hole. This course is unmerciful and does not discriminate between long and short hitters. Placement will be key as the overgrown rough from last year gives more incentive (like we needed any more) to hit the fairways and greens this week.

With all this in mind, we’re picking the best golfers from each tier for your pools this week. We’ve transitioned from using the Official World Golf Rankings to using the Data Golf rankings. We’re still picking one player in tiers of 10, even if some LIV golfers are in that tier.

Odds from BetMGM.

Tier 1: Collin Morikawa — Data Golf No. 7

Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, Sam Burns

Morikawa should be licking his chops after a poor performance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational this past weekend. TPC Sawgrass, despite being a challenging course, opens Morikawa’s door to redemption.

He is seventh in true strokes-gained on approach and 10th tee-to-green. If he can solidify himself off the tee this week, his proficiency on approach in the short game should help propel him up the standings.

Concerned about the cut at Arnold Palmer? Morikawa missed the cut at Bay Hill in 2023 and followed up at The Players with a T13. Plus, Morikawa recently switched drivers and you need a great week with the driver to play well at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Now, despite its degree of difficulty, TPC Sawgrass offers a course more catered to his style and his play.

Tier 2: Tony Finau — Data Golf No. 19

Ludvig Åberg, Russell Henley, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Tommy Fleetwood, Sahith Theegala, Tony Finau, Byeong Hun An

“Top Five” Tony Finau is back this week! Overall, the year has been promising yet unfulfilled for Finau. He is fifth in true strokes-gained tee-to-green and on approach, but he’s continued to struggle to make putts.

TPC Sawgrass offers him an out in that department. The new ryegrass rough in 2023 showed us that tee-to-green matters at TPC Sawgrass and that this tournament isn’t a putting contest like some on the PGA Tour. Putting did not help golfers separate themselves last year in terms of strokes gained.

The focus this week is going to be: Can you hit your fairways and not fall victim to the numerous hazards? Finau ranks 11th in greens in regulation hit in 2024.

This all plays a part in the “Top Five Tony” agenda this week. He has a top-five finish in every major except the “fifth major.” He’s played in The Players eight times and has two top-25 finishes.

Tier 3: Cameron Young — Data Golf No. 22

Wyndham Clark, Cameron Young, Shane Lowry, Eric Cole, Matt Fitzpatrick, Hideki Matsuyama, Min Woo Lee, Will Zalatoris, Adam Scott, Keegan Bradley 

Recent form is a tell-all at The Players. If you have trouble striking the ball, you will not often find it easier at TPC Sawgrass. Cameron Young is flourishing so far this season, and a breakout could be coming.

The true strokes-gained stats support Young’s undervaluation at The Players. He is 16th in tee-to-green and 20th on approach. Young has two top-10s and a top-20 finish on tour in 2024. Despite the T36 finish at Bay Hill this past weekend, Young still finished fifth in strokes gained on approach. But he finished last in strokes gained putting, which tanked him down the leaderboard.

Tier 4: Tom Hoge — Data Golf No. 37

Beau Hossler, Corey Conners, J.T. Poston, Jason Day, Harris English, Sungjae Im, Tom Hoge, Tom Kim 

Tom Hoge is first in true strokes-gained on approach in 2024. That makes him a huge value here on a course where approach shots mean everything.

Hoge has two top-10 finishes and three top-20 finishes in 2024, so it’s safe to say he is doing well in recent form. Hoge is hitting the greens at 72 percent — 30th in the PGA. He finished in the top three at The Players last year and is poised to have another good showing.

Tier 5: Brian Harman — Data Golf No. 41

Brian Harman, Denny McCarthy, Emiliano Grillo, Adam Hadwin, Alex Noren, Brendon Todd, Nick Taylor

Brian Harman has had a roller-coaster start to 2024. He kicked off the year with a top-five finish at the Sentry and a top-20 finish at Sony. But then, he could not muster anything better than a T44 for about two months.

Now, he might be back on the radar. Harman finished T12 this past week at Arnold Palmer, and his finish would have been much higher if he had not collapsed on Saturday. In true strokes-gained, he finished 10th on approach, third off the tee and eighth tee-to-green.

Harman has the accuracy to be extraordinary at TPC Sawgrass. He finished T8 here in 2019 and T3 in 2021.