Fair odds: 1 filly coming off upset may rebound in Pocahontas

Any time you lose at 33-100, which shows up as 1-5 on the toteboard, it is a disappointing time. But there are many reasons to think V V’s Dream can rebound Saturday in the Grade 3 Pocahontas at Churchill Downs. Based on the morning line vs. my fair-odds line, we’re going to get the right price to bet it happens.

V V’s Dream lost to Brightwork that day, and all that filly has gone on to do is win the Adirondack (G2) and Spinaway Stakes (G1) at Saratoga. V V’s Dream could not reel in the now-Grade 1 winner, but she should have pace to close into in the Pocahontas as both no. 2 Peignoir and no. 7 Youalmosthadme have gate-to-wire wins on their resume, and no. 1 Empire Island has Brisnet pace ratings that suggest she’ll be spirited from the rail.

The conventional wisdom might be that V V’s Dream regressed from her fine debut. But given it was 4 3/4 lengths back to third, the winner came back to win a pair of graded stakes, and her Ragozin figures are the fastest of this group with time off before her first graded-stakes test. I am a buyer at 7-5, which is much shorter than her 5-2 morning line.

This is a clear case of not overcomplicating things from a wagering perspective. At V V’s Dream morning-line price, she is a prime win bet. Given she is not the favorite on the morning line, she is a stone-cold single for me in all multi-race wagers.

With my fair odds, there is no way Youalmosthadme offers any value, although kudos go to Qatar Racing and Swinbank Stables for realizing some value from this $12,000 yearling purchase who already has earned $184,600. No. 9 Hot Beach also figures to be overbet after the win last out to break her maiden and by picking up Flavien Prat, but the performance figures are too weak for me to take as the morning-line third choice against this group.

I’ll peek at the exacta hooking V V’s Dream with either Empire Island or Courbe, but I’m not expecting to be too enticed. I really think the win bet is the prudent play.