Alcibiades fair odds: Brightwork is a likely underlay vs. solid field

Brightwork is as exciting a filly to come to the Grade 1 Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland perhaps since Silverbulletday won the famed 2-year-old filly race at even money in 1998.

Undefeated in four starts, Brightwork already dispatched next-out graded-stakes winner and fellow Alcibiades entrant V V's Dream in the Debutante Stakes before shipping to Saratoga and winning the Spinaway (G1). This test marks not only her first time as favorite but also her first time around two turns, and I am willing to oppose her at a short price.

There are three other contenders in this race: the aforementioned V V's Dream, who avenged the disappointing Debutante by running off the screen in the Pocahontas Stakes (G3), and first-out maiden winners Candied and Emery.

Of those two, I prefer Emery, who sports the field's best debut Ragozin Figure and has a pedigree that suggests this distance is within her scope given sire More Than Ready and a dam who won a stakes going a mile. She also figures to be able to overcome her outside post with early gas and the presence of Kentucky's best jockey, Tyler Gaffalione. I expect Emery to offer the most value.

Candied is a bit of a wild card because her debut was not what I normally expect from a well-meant Todd Pletcher-trained 2-year-old. She did not take much money when making a four-wide move to just get up. Still, the number came solid, and she is in the mix with any improvement second out.

Wine On Tap figures to be the field's biggest underlay. There is some sheepishness involved with making a Pletcher trainee this high a price in a 2-year-old stakes, but she has burned money, losing two straight stakes as the chalk. Tapit juveniles do improve later in the year, and her dam is a graded-stakes winner around two turns, but I absolutely have to let this one beat me at the expected price.

From a wagering strategy standpoint, I think the same edict has to apply to Brightwork as the favorite as well. I expect Emery to be worth a win bet and the 3-5-8 exacta box combos to be overlaid as well given the expected money on both Wine On Tap and Brightwork.