Fair odds: QEII has a deep field, but 1 filly rises above

We all define races differently. For me, a deep field does not necessarily mean a competitive field.

And so it goes in this year's edition of the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup on Saturday at Keeneland, where a deep field of 13 3-year-old fillies, including one also-eligible, entered the 1 1/8-mile turf race. One filly in particular looks clearly best.

I am speaking, of course, of Mawj, the 2-1 morning-line favorite who was last seen extending her win streak to three with a game win over Tahiyra in the 1,000 Guineas (G1) on May 7 at Newmarket. That was Tahiyra's lone defeat, and she has gone on to win three straight Group 1 races.

So class isn't a question, but recent form is. That "last seen ... on May 7" is probably why she will not be odds-on here, as that is a long layoff with an overseas ship to contest a full field of accomplished fillies.

The other concern is she never has gone 1 1/8 miles. Although Europe-bred horses typically have no problem staying when shipping to America, progeny of Exceed And Excel are only 1-for-19 in nine-furlong races on turf in North America.

Given those two concerns, I will be extremely price sensitive. Regardless of who scratches from the 13-horse field, I will not want any less than 6-5. I currently have her priced at 9-5 because I am using all 13 horses in my 100-point line, even though at least one will scratch for sure.

Whether you use Ragozin Sheets or Brisnet Class Ratings to contrast European competition, Mawj is faster and better than the other Europeans in this race, but giving a boost to the chances of Elusive Princess is that she already has won stateside, taking the 1 3/16-mile Saratoga Oaks (G3) Invitational on Aug. 4 at Saratoga by 3 1/4 lengths as the 27-20 favorite against nine others.

The other international shippers are Sounds of Heaven and Elounda Queen, both of who last raced at Deauville. Sounds of Heaven was less than impressive last out, but she was only a length back of Tahiyra in the Coronation Stakes (G1) at Royal Ascot, so I give her a slight nod over Elounda Queen.

If she gets drawn in, Freydis the Red would have to be respected after she got a good number in her Dueling Grounds Oaks victory. I don't love the outside post if she does draw in, but her style is best for that draw, or at least is the least worst.

From a wagering standpoint, if Mawj ends up odds-on, then I'd be willing to gamble on the next four in an exacta box. If Mawj is my fair odds or higher, then I'd bet to win. If she is teetering just below my fair, odds then I'll gamble the slightest of bits in exactas and tris keying her with the longest prices of the other four I mentioned.