Falcons vs. Bears betting preview: NFL odds, best bets, predictions for Week 17
The Chicago Bears find them in an unfamiliar place: They’re favored in an NFL game.
Hosting the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, the Bears find themselves a 2.5-point favorite, which is odd considering Atlanta is the team still in the playoff hunt, while Chicago has been looking toward the draft for more than a month now.
But that’s where we’re at in Week 17 of the NFL season.
We have three ways to bet on the game, but before we go there, here are three things to know:
- The Bears have a higher full-season ranking, per DVOA, in all three team categories – offense, defense and special teams.
- Chicago has been playing at – dare we say – an elite defensive level over the past month and a half, leading the league in pass defense and third in overall defense since Week 11.
- Temperatures at kickoff are expected to be around freezing, with double-digit winds making it feel even lower and tougher to throw in. They don’t call it the Windy City for nothing.
- Spread: Bears -2.5
- Total: 38.0 points
- Moneyline: Falcons +130, Bears -155
With that as a setup, let’s get to the best bets:
Under normal circumstances, bet on the team late in the season with the most to gain. Not here; this is anything but normal.
Even with the Falcons fighting for the NFC South title and playoffs, and the Bears with nothing on the line but maybe pride, this is a mismatch.
The Bears over the last six weeks have been a much better team in almost every statistical category. And they’re playing this one at home in weather conditions they’re used to.
The Falcons have had several embarrassing defeats on the road, where they averaged 14 points per game while winning just two of seven games. Chicago? They’ve won four in a row at home, averaging 25 points during the streak.
Grab the ridiculous -2.5 and run … like Justin Fields on a bootleg.
It’s been a month of improvement for Pitts, who has gone over this number in each of the last four weeks, with a per-game average of 47.0 yards.
The winds will make it challenging to throw at Soldier Field, but the one area the Bears have struggled on defense is containing opposing tight ends. Chicago has allowed 95 receptions by tight ends this season, the third-most in the league.
Taylor Heinecke is coming off one of his best games as a pro … indoors … against a poor defense. Great. Do it again … in Chicago … with wind gusts expected around 20 mph … against one of the better defenses in the league over the last six weeks.
We’re betting against it, and we don’t think Chicago will have much more success against a Falcons defense that has ranked inside the top six in EPA/play since Week 9.
Points will be at a premium along Lake Michigan on Sunday if the weather forecast holds. It’s not hard to get to 38 points in an NFL game, but with two dominant defensive teams playing in weather like that, it will be.
