Famous Toastery Bowl Betting Odds, Spreads & Pick 2023

Covers

18 December 2023

The opt-outs are plentiful for both Western Kentucky and Old Dominion ahead of the Famous Toastery Bowl, and our college football betting picks believe that these offenses will suffer as a result.

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and the Old Dominion Monarchs — former Conference USA foes — will meet for the first time since the latter left for the Sun Belt two years ago in the Famous Toastery Bowl in Charlotte, NC this afternoon.

Both teams have their fair share of bowl game opt-outs, but it may be a little bit more lopsided in favor of Old Dominion in the college football odds. Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion at Jerry Richardson Stadium in Charlotte, NC on Monday, December 18.

Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion best odds

Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion picks and predictions

It was a very disappointing season for the Hilltoppers, as they were expected to be a C-USA title contender. Instead, they went 7-5 and got smoked at home by the eventual conference champion Liberty Flames, 42-29. The defense and running game were the main culprits for the disappointment.

The defense ranked 88th in scoring, 114th in total yards, 109th in first downs allowed, and 118th in team tackles for loss per game. To make matters worse, the Hilltoppers will be missing three key defenders in this game due to the transfer portal in LB Desmyn Baker, CB Upton Stout, and DB Talique Allen.

On offense, an incredible passing game was ruined by a dreadful run game. The Hilltoppers ranked 115th in rushing yards per game and it has caused them to rank 107th in the country in time of possession. Now they will be without three starting offensive linemen in this game due to opt-outs.

The good news for Western Kentucky is that Old Dominion was an abysmal offense this season. They ranked 101st in scoring, 93rd in yards, 111th in first downs, 125th in redzone scoring percentage, and 129th in tackles for loss allowed per game. They also ranked 129th in time of possession and allowed an unbelievable 61 sacks on the year.

Their bright spots on the season were their ability to stop opponents from having big plays in the run game and getting off the field on third down. They ranked 56th in rushing defense and 29th in opponent third-down conversion percentage (35.0%). Jason Henderson had an incredible year at linebacker with 170 tackles (19.5 tackles for loss), 4.5 sacks, and a forced fumble.

Western Kentucky does not typically play low-scoring games, but with so many opt-outs, this is a strong candidate for one. The Monarchs average only 22.9 points per game and yet they are still favored here with all the opt-outs on the Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky has been held to Under 25 points in four games this season, and that will likely happen here as well.

My best bet: Under 51.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion same-game parlay

Under 51.5Elijah Young Under 44.5 rush yards

Malachi Corley anytime TD

Starting with the Under, we can build a nice same game parlay here on bet365.

We talked about the rushing struggles for the Hilltoppers and one of the few strengths for the Monarchs being stopping the run. Well Elijah Young for Western Kentucky is only averaging 38.3 yards per game on the ground. He only had 16 in the season finale, so we will add his Under on rushing yards.

Finally, we will add a touchdown scorer despite our Unders to really boost our odds here. Malachi Corley has 11 touchdowns this season and will be the main target for Austin Reed and the Hilltoppers offense. The Monarchs allowed 23 passing touchdowns this season, and Corley is the most likely candidate to add to that number.

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Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion spread and Over/Under analysis

While Reed and the Hilltoppers’ passing offense has been incredible this season, the loss of three offensive lineman will be huge. Henderson and the Monarchs defense rank 44th in the country with 6.0 tackles for loss per game. Reed does not take a ton of sacks but will likely be forced to keep his passes short in this one.

If the Hilltoppers cannot get any sort of run game going and are forced into short passes, they will be involved in several third-down situations. This plays perfectly into the Monarchs’ hands. The spread is a little high for what I consider to be a low-scoring game, but I will still lean towards Old Dominion.

Old Dominion games only average 49.1 points. The only common opponent in each team’s schedule was Liberty. WKU lost 42-29 at home and Old Dominion lost 38-10 on the road. I take from that fact that the Monarchs’ defense is better than Western Kentucky’s at full strength. I expect to see a game where neither team reaches 28 points.

Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion betting trend to know

Old Dominion has hit the Game Total Under in six of their last nine games. Find more college football betting trends for Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion.

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