Fantasy Premier League: Bowen, Gakpo and Gabriel Jesus as free-hit differentials

Blank Gameweek 32 is going to be a very popular week for Fantasy Premier League managers to use their free hit chip.

Although only four teams are blanking — Manchester United, Chelsea, Brighton & Hove Albion and Manchester City — a lot of the highly owned and in-form players represent these sides. It makes total sense, therefore, for many managers to use it this week.

So let’s look at some quality differential picks.

Jarrod Bowen

Jarrod Bowen(£8m) is only 3.5 per cent owned at the time of writing. He was phenomenal last season, scoring 12 goals and registering 17 FPL assists.

He has not hit those heights this season as West Ham United have had a poor campaign, but Bowen has recently run into form.

From his past three games, he has a goal and two assists and he has a fantastic opportunity to add to his attacking returns against Bournemouth. Gary O’Neil’s team have conceded the second-highest number of goals (59) in the league and also have the worst xGC (expected goals conceded: 54.93).

Bowen is West Ham’s talisman with a goal involvement of 41 per cent and is also the one most likely to get returns in this fixture. He has both goal and assist threat and is absolutely nailed to start. The forward has started every league game this season and has only failed to complete the full 90 minutes twice.

This is especially important this week as Gameweek 33 will be midweek — starting on Tuesday. Therefore, there will be a bit of rotation and reduced minutes for certain players. Bowen is as safe as they come.

Cody Gakpo

Cody Gakpo (£7.6m) is only 4.8 per cent owned at the moment and will be an overlooked asset for those using the free chip. Mohamed Salah (£12.8m) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.4m) are the best Liverpool picks. Andrew Robertson (£6.8m) or Virgil van Dijk (£6.6m) will likely be the popular third option.

But Gakpo has five goals and one assist in only 11 starts and looks to be the favourite to start again in Gameweek 32 having provided a goal and assist last gameweek.

Therefore, going with double attack instead of double defence could be the differential strategy that pays off. Jurgen Klopp’s side have been good in the final third, scoring 56 goals (fourth most) with an xG of 55.54 (third best), and are likely to score a few against Nottingham Forest at Anfield.

Steve Cooper’s team have conceded the third-highest number of goals (56).

Liverpool’s defence this season has been nowhere near as good as previous years. They have conceded 36 goals (fifth best) but have an xGC of 43.45 (11th best). Consequently, going for a double attack seems like the best option based on both stats and the eye test.

There is a hint of risk with Gakpo, though, with his expected minutes. But with a good performance in his last game and the likelihood he will play through the middle, I would say it is one worth taking. He was the most advanced player on the pitch against Leeds United, too.

Gabriel Jesus

Gabriel Jesus (£8.2m) was one of the most-owned players in the history of the game before suffering his injury. His ownership is now down to 29 per cent, but only at around 2.4 per cent in the top 100,000 managers, according to livefpl.net.

Picking triple Arsenal in your free hit team is simply a must given they play Southampton at home. However, deciding which three players to pick will be one of the biggest decisions for managers playing their free hit chip.

Bukayo Saka (£8.6m) and Gabriel Martinelli (£6.9m) will be the two most popular assets, but Jesus is the one who may make the difference. He has been eased back in since his return from a knee injury in Gameweek 27 and has four goals in his last three games.

Arsenal will be heavy favourites for this game and this could well be a huge scoreline. With Jesus having the highest goal threat in one of the best attacking teams in the league, he will be a fine option this week despite him not being likely to play the full 90 minutes. Even with around 65 to 75 minutes, he could secure a massive haul.

Despite his long layoff, he still has the highest xG (11.93) at Arsenal and has also registered the most big chances (23) — 14 more than second-placed Martinelli.

His underlying numbers tell us he is a volume player and will continue to get plenty of chances to score.

Fixtures do not get more appealing than Southampton at home.

Jacob Ramsey

Jacob Ramsey (£5.2m) is having a great season with Aston Villa, especially under Unai Emery. He has two goals and three assists in his last five games. He has started the previous eight matches and looks to have cemented his status as a first-team regular.

Villa are unbeaten in their last eight games, winning seven of them and scoring 16 goals. Ramsey has both goals and assists in his locker and has three double-digit hauls, so can be very handy as a one-time free-hit differential.

Brentford, Villa’s opponents on Saturday, have also shipped 42 goals, which puts them in the bottom eight for goals conceded. So Villa should find some luck in the final third.

Joachim Andersen

Joachim Andersen (£4.5m) could be a useful pick for those going with a triple Arsenal attack and only one Liverpool defender. The two most popular defenders will be Alexander-Arnold and Kieran Trippier (£6.2m), so the third will be key.

Crystal Palace are at home to Everton, who have scored the fewest goals (24) this season with an xG of 34.15 (sixth worst). With Sean Dyche at the helm, I don’t really see their attacking output improving.

Over the season, Palace’s defence has been decent. They have only shipped 40 goals (seventh best defence) with an xG of 31.88 (10th) — numbers to reflect a good, solid, mid-table team.

Since Roy Hodgson has come in, they have improved both in defence and attack, so it looks like a good time to back them. Andersen can be a great pick not only due to his clean sheet prospects, but he also poses the highest goal threat from the Palace defence.

The 26-year-old has one goal this season with 16 shots in the box and an xG of 1.52. He has also created eight chances with an xA of 0.70.

Gameweek 32 clean sheet probability

Below are the clean sheet probabilities for Gameweek 32. These are taken straight from the bookmakers and converted into percentages.

They are very helpful for choosing which defenders and goalkeeper to play each week and are especially handy for picking your defence when playing your free hit.

Gameweek 32 anytime goalscorer probability

The same applies to the anytime goalscorer odds. When assembling your free hit team, you generally want to include the players who are most likely to score.

These probabilities are based on the assumption the player starts and plays for 90 minutes, so beware that it doesn’t take expected minutes or the chances of a player starting into account.