Favorite MLB Futures Bets For The 2024 Season
PressBox’s Phil Backert, Stan “The Fan” Charles and Glenn Clark shared their favorite MLB futures bets. All odds are from SuperBook Sports in mid-February.
Pete Alonso Wins Regular-Season Home Run Title (+1200)
The Mets slugger already has this title on his resume, as he led all of baseball in home runs in 2019 with 53. Alonso has also finished in the top three in each of the last two seasons. In order to win these awards, durability is crucial and Alonso checks that box as well. Outside of the shortened 2020 season, Alonso has played in at least 152 games in every season of his career and has played at least 160 games twice.
There’s always something about extra motivation when a player is in a contract year, and Alonso is set to hit the free agent market following the 2024 season. Most projections have Alonso finishing with around 40 home runs again, which is a very reasonable number. He is going to have to fight off the likes of Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber, Matt Olson and Shohei Ohtani, but Alonso has already proven he can finish at the top. This number should be +700 or +800 given the resume Alonso has, so I’m willing to jump on it at +1200.
Colorado Rockies Under 59.5 Wins (-110)
Outside of the Oakland Athletics, there may not be a worse roster in baseball. The Kris Bryant contract has been a disaster, as he has failed to play more than 80 games in his first two seasons, and the pitching staff is a dumpster fire. The Rockies, who play in a home ballpark that surrenders a ton of runs, had the highest ERA in baseball in 2023. The team didn’t improve in the offseason, either.
Major League Baseball reworked the schedule prior to the 2023 season so teams don’t play as many division games, but the Rockies are still going to see a lot of the National League West and that is not good. The Los Angeles Dodgers may threaten the record for most wins in a season, the Arizona Diamondbacks are coming off a World Series appearance, and the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres have enough talent that they will push for wild-card berths. The Rockies won 59 games last year and it will be difficult to clear that mark in 2024.
Let’s look at this as a six-month investment, so I will suggest multiple picks per category. So here goes …
Most Pitching Wins In MLB
Atlanta Braves LHP Max Fried (+1800)
Fried is third in these odds behind Gerrit Cole (+1400) and teammate Spencer Strider (+1600). Wins are not always the easiest to project. Obviously, no matter how good a pitcher is, he needs a good lineup, a very dependable bullpen, a good defense and health.
Fried won a career-high 17 games in 2019. He has twice notched 14 wins. But his winning percentage in 88 decisions (62-26) is an otherworldly .705. I think he takes it to another level in his walk year.
Baltimore Orioles RHP Corbin Burnes (+2000)
All of the things that apply to Fried and the Braves apply here, too, with the added caveat that as good as the Braves are defensively, the Orioles are a tad bit better. This one just feels like you’ll really get a run for your money.
Houston Astros RHP Justin Verlander (+4000)
Verlander is one season removed from a remarkable 2022 season in which he went 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA. I am going to make the bet here that his 13-8 and 3.22 marks a year ago were due to his missing the first five weeks of the season and landing in the middle of a Mets mess. With Bryan Abreu, Ryan Pressly and Josh Hader shortening games, Verlander comes real close to his ’22 numbers and may even exceed 20 wins provided his delayed start to spring doesn’t linger. Wait until right before the season starts to place this bet.
New York Yankees RHP Gerrit Cole (+1400)
I’d be an idiot here if I didn’t take Gerrit Cole as my No. 4 selection to give myself some protection. Cole is entering his fifth season in pinstripes. He has been very good, even great … but his best win mark as a Yankee is 16 in 2021.
Cole doesn’t pitch for a great team, and the division he pitches in is as tough a neighborhood as there is in baseball. His bullpen is not bad, but I’m not sure I see it as elite. But on the off chance I am wrong and the ’24 Yankees stay healthy and are better than I think, Cole can most certainly win 20 games.
Regular-Season Home Run Title
Like I did above, I am going to endeavor to give you a few home-run champion possibilities that could click.
Chicago White Sox OF Luis Robert Jr. (+6000)
The gifted center fielder turned in his most complete season to date a year ago with 38 homers. If he is just now “getting it,” perhaps he can take it to another level of, say, 45 to 50 long balls. Robert is no sure bet, but the reward of the payout is one I’ll take.
Minnesota Twins INF Royce Lewis (+10000)
Lewis was the No. 1 overall pick by the Twins back in 2017 but has battled injuries since then. However, in his first somewhat sustained presence in the Twins’ lineup, he hit 15 homers in just 217 at-bats in 2023. If he can somehow play 145-plus games and rack up about 600 at-bats, imagine what this bomber can do. Last season, Lewis hit a long ball every 14.5 at-bats. I am willing to place a sawbuck on Lewis continuing to trend up.
Miami Marlins INF Jake Burger (+20000)
I’m still not quite sure why the White Sox dealt Jake Burger to Miami for left-handed pitcher Jake Eder, who missed all of 2022. Maybe he’ll make former Marlins GM Kim Ng look bad, but so far, Burger has made Ng look absolutely brilliant.
Burger hit 34 homers in 492 at-bats in 2023, making him a bat to watch. He hit a dinger every 14.5 at bats between his time with the White Sox and Marlins. The thing you have to watch out for is the swing and miss in his game. Burger walked just 32 times and struck out 149 times.
Again, this is a six-month wager. Burger’s power is prodigious when he makes contact. You could end up having fun watching him hit some homers.
Baltimore Orioles INF Gunnar Henderson (+10000)
The 2023 AL Rookie of the Year is admittedly a long shot, but if you are an Orioles fan and want to have some fun in trying to win a big return, throw $10 on a player whose light bulb has just begun to go off in figuring out how to attack pitchers.
Some 2024 projections believe Henderson’s home run production might decline, but I think he’ll improve a great deal the next couple seasons. I think he’ll hit at least 30 bombs in ’24, and with just a slight turn of the screw I could see him in the high 30s or low 40s.
San Diego Padres OF Fernando Tatis Jr. (+2500)
Tatis is one of the most gifted players in the game. He hit 42 homers in 2021, one every 11.4 at-bats. His ’22 season was a lost cause due to self-inflicted injuries and a PED suspension that also robbed him of the first 20 games of 2023.
If he comes into this season more focused and hell-bent on reestablishing his reputation as a top player, it only can happen through recapturing that 2021 season. A $20 wager on Tatis is probably a very smart move.
I know at least three of these bets in each category will be losers, but I think we have a pretty good shot at cashing out with a nice little profit in each instance.
Orioles Over 89.5 Wins (-110)
This one feels like a trap. The Orioles won 101 games last year. Set the number low and let everyone bet the over because they forgot that the Orioles outperformed their +129 run differential (which was the same as the 90-win Astros). With Félix Bautista sidelined, the likelihood of winning 30 one-run games again seems slim.
Alas, I’m going to bite. It’s not just the addition of Corbin Burnes. The innings numbers should all be up for the rest of the rotation as well, particularly John Means, who looked John Means-like in his four late-season starts in 2023. With Jackson Holliday in line to be at the big league level for the bulk of the season, the offense has a chance to improve as well. I don’t think the Orioles will win 100 games again, but this number is just low enough for me to believe they can clear it.
Royals Under 72.5 Wins (-110)
I’m more than a bit confused as to why this number would be set at 72.5, which clears their 2023 win total by 16.5. Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha are really solid additions who both had good 2023 seasons, but I’m still struggling with the idea of a 17-game improvement. I actually went looking for the Royals’ win total because I believed I would be making an “over” bet, but the number is simply too high for me to get on board.
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