MLB odds, predictions: 2024 win total picks, best bets

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18 March 2024

MLB odds, predictions: 2024 win total picks, best bets

The 2024 MLB season is right around the corner, and the rosters for all 30 teams are taking shape now that spring training is coming to a close.

While there are still some significant free agents that remain unsigned such as starting pitchers Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, there's enough certainty among each team to evaluate how many wins they're going to achieve in 2024.

Below are my five favorite over/under win totals to bet on before Opening Day for the 2024 MLB season:

2024 MLB SEASON WIN TOTAL BEST BETS

New York Yankees UNDER 91.5 wins (-120)

The Yankees acquired Juan Soto this offseason to bolster their lineup, but their biggest issue last season was their starting pitching, and they failed to significantly upgrade their rotation heading into 2024. Marcus Stroman was was a solid free agent signing, but ace Gerrit Cole is expected to miss at least a month of action with an elbow injury that could linger into May, and last year's free agent addition Carlos Rodon has yet to show that he's back to being the pitcher the Yankees thought they were getting. The Yankees should improve upon last season's disappointing 82-win season, but expecting this team to win over 90 wins feels ambitious considering they also have some questions in the bullpen to where the under feels like a strong play.

Philadelphia Phillies OVER 89.5 wins (-105)

The Phillies have one of the strongest lineups in MLB, and they've also got solid pitching with a mix of proven veterans and young arms with upside. Being in the same division as the Atlanta Braves is tough, but the Phillies proved they could hang after upsetting the Braves last postseason and should see improvement in 2024 despite a quiet offseason since star players Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber are all in the prime of their careers. That star-studded lineup coupled with a rotation led by co-aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola should allow the Phillies to cross the 90-win threshold as long as injuries don't pile up.

Cincinnati Reds OVER 81.5 wins (-115)

The Reds are one of the most exciting teams heading into 2024 due to a plethora of young talent, and I'm buying the hype considering how much upside they flashed last year after calling up a slew of prospects led by electrifying shortstop Elly De La Cruz. As fun as De La Cruz was to watch, the Reds have plenty of other talented bats that make them one of the more dangerous lineups in MLB, and their pitching staff appears to be on the rise as well with some young arms stepping up. Pitching tends to be the challenge for the Reds since Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park is so hitter friendly, but they appear to have enough starters and bullpen depth to be able to finish over .500 and challenge for NL Central division title.

Los Angeles Angels UNDER 72.5 wins (-110)

The Angels squandered their chances of winning with two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, and they're now set to begin the post-Ohtani era now that he's a Los Angeles Dodger. The Angels failed to put winning teams around Ohtani despite having fellow superstar Mike Trout next to him, as their other bats and their pitching staff flopped despite spending up in an attempt to take advantage of having star players. The Angels had a quiet offseason as they look to rebuild, and it's unlikely that they're going to suddenly find success in the top-heavy AL West without Ohtani to where a 90-plus loss season seems inevitable.

San Diego Padres UNDER 83.5 wins (-115)

The Padres were the talk of MLB last offseason with what appeared a star-studded lineup and a loaded rotation, but things didn't go according to plan due to injuries and a lack of depth. The Padres didn't do much this offseason to improve that depth, and while they should get enough from their bats to overcome the loss of Juan Soto, their starting pitching and bullpen appear too thin for them to become the team that many thought they were going to be last season. With that said, I'll bank on the Padres having another disappointing year in a tough division led by the dominant Dodgers and the rising Diamondbacks.