Fever vs Sparks Predictions, Picks, and Odds
The Sparks may be winless since June 25 but the Fever are coming to town without their best player and we think this may be the perfect time to strike. Find out why in our WNBA betting picks below.
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The instinct may be to overlook WNBA games between two non-playoff teams, but ignoring the Indiana Fever is ignoring what could be one of the WNBA’s most exciting teams in years to come, and dismissing the Los Angeles Sparks is to dismiss a team positioning itself to sneak into the playoffs.
Furthermore, overlooked games can provide the most betting value, and there just may be some in Hollywood tonight.
Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for Fever vs. Sparks on July 25, with tip set for 10:00 p.m. ET.
Fever vs Sparks best odds
Fever vs Sparks picks and predictions
This handicapper has long ascribed to the simple gambling axiom of, “Buy on bad news, sell on good news”.
The thought fades the public’s overreaction to injury news more than anything else. If a starting-level shooting guard is ruled out in an NBA game, the world will move the spread by 1.5 or 2 points, the kind of movement that suggests the guard is a borderline All-Star, not merely a league-average starter. That provides an opportunity to enjoy value after that line movement.
The thought does not apply much to leagues and sports without as much public action or constant headlines, like the WNBA. Indiana Fever forward NaLyssa Smith’s foot injury has not conjured the kind of notice that it would if it were, say, Myles Turner of the Pacers.
But Smith scores the second-most points on the Fever roster, grabs the most rebounds per game, and plays more efficiently than anyone else aside from All-Star rookie Aliyah Boston. The frontcourt combination has been a key piece of Indiana finding competence this season after going just 11-57 across the last two years.
Smith has missed the Fever’s last three games, but Boston played well in the first of those, going 10-of-19 from the field for 23 points with nine rebounds. In the next two games, though, she went a combined 5-for-11 for 17 points and 10 total rebounds.
This was Boston’s worst two-game stretch of the season aside from two losses as June turned to July in which she went 5-for-12 for 10 points with 16 rebounds. Considering the boards, perhaps this stretch was actually worse.
Indiana lost against the spread in both those games, and it then went ahead and lost two more. Boston did not find a quick fix. Expecting one now would be further foolishness.
It is possible she's hitting a wall this season. The rookie led South Carolina to the Final Four late this past March and then was playing in a Fever jersey about seven weeks later. She never got a genuine break.
And now she has to carry more of the Indiana load with Smith absent. If the public was dialed into this game, there may have been an overreaction to Smith’s injury, but with a relatively small market looking at this mid-week game between two of the WNBA’s worst teams, that overreaction has not come.
This spread remains remarkably reasonable, favoring the Sparks by just a bucket at some shops. As long as it stays within four points, rare value is present given these circumstances.
My best bet: Sparks -3 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Fever vs Sparks spread and Over/Under analysis
Is that thought process overvaluing Smith? Not so much.
Let’s not forget: Indiana is still Indiana. It's found some semblance of competence this season, but it's hardly good. The Fever are 3-5 ATS in their last eight and 1-7 outright over that stretch. They lost to the Lynx and the Mercury in the last month, things no quality team should do.
This is their first matchup with the Sparks this season, and if there's a reason to believe in Indiana tonight, it's that it's catching Los Angeles at a nadir. The Sparks have gone 0-7-1 ATS in the last month and 0-8 outright. Again, this non-playoff team lost to both the Lynx and the Mercury in that stretch.
But after playing only one home game in the last three weeks, tonight could be Los Angeles’s salve.
This total of 165.5 sits 1.5 points above an average pregame total of 164 across the last 10 games for each of these teams. With Smith sidelined and Boston thus slowed, that is higher than it should be.
Fever vs Sparks betting trend to know
Indiana is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against teams with a losing straight-up record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Fever vs. Sparks.
Fever vs Sparks game info
Fever vs Sparks key injuries
Fever: NaLyssa Smith F (Out).
Sparks: Karlie Samuelson G (Questionable), Chiney Ogwumike F (Out), Nia Clouden G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
