Lynx vs Liberty Predictions, Picks, and Odds

Covers

07 June 2023

Lynx vs Liberty Predictions, Picks, and Odds

The Liberty haven't lived up to early expectations, while the Lynx have been shockingly competent the past couple of games. See where our WNBA picks see this creating value for tonight's matchup.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Lynx cracked the winning column this past weekend, as shocking of a sentence as that is to write. The joy of that win should be short-lived, with the Lynx 14-point WNBA odds underdogs on the road against the New York Liberty. The Liberty would not mind a competitive reprieve after struggling a bit in their last two outings.

Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for the Lynx vs Liberty on June 7, with tip set for 7:00 p.m. ET.

Lynx vs Liberty best odds

Lynx vs Liberty picks and predictions

This handicapper has been lower on the Lynx than just about anyone else out there, so it was deserved and comical that he couldn’t watch their first win of the season on Saturday. Winning on the road against the Mystics should not be taken lightly; Washington is led by a prime MVP candidate in Elena Delle Donne and should be one of the league’s four genuine title contenders this year.

Yet, Minnesota used a dominant second quarter to hold on for a two-point win, led by Kayla McBride’s 24 points.

McBride missed two games earlier this season due to personal reasons, games the Lynx lost not only outright but also against the spread. As Minnesota’s best and most experienced scorer, that absence loomed large.

It’s not a coincidence that in the three games since McBride’s return, the Lynx have gone 3-0 ATS. Perhaps bookmakers over-corrected to how bad Minnesota was without McBride and the borderline competence the roster has shown since creates some gambling value.

A win tonight, though, would be a shock. While the Liberty struggled in back-to-back games against the Sky, that is a different competitive level than the Lynx, even these improved Lynx.

That said, New York is 2-4 ATS in the first half this season, including splitting the first halves in that series against Chicago. The Liberty continue to mess around early in games, and with the Lynx just feisty enough to hang around that long, a first-half spread of +8.0 should provide the most value tonight.

Furthermore, Minnesota won the first half in its surprising win Saturday, outpacing the Mystics by seven at the break, and tied Connecticut at halftime a week ago. The Lynx's progress has come early in games, going 1-5 ATS in the first half to open the season, as well as 1-5 outright.

If pondering that outright bid, a moneyline of nothing short of +450 should be sought, but it would be a bolder choice than this handicapper is comfortable with.

My best bet: Lynx first half +8.0 (-110 at Caesars)

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers June receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.

Best WNBA bonuses

If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the WNBA, here are two of the best bonuses* available:

B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets!

best promo codes for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Lynx vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis

The Liberty opened as a 14.5-point favorite late Tuesday night, with most books moving to -14.0 early on Wednesday. The hope had been to see it creep the other way and lean into that value on the Lynx, but alas, WNBA bettors are too sharp to create that chance.

Nonetheless, it’s hard to justify backing New York against the spread. This superstar-laden roster has exceeded expectations just twice this season, one of them by only a point. In their four ATS losses, the Liberty have fallen short of the spread by an average of 12.5 points.

Tonight should not become a two-point game, but Minnesota should be able to hang around just long enough to prevent a laughable blowout, and at that point, a backdoor cover could be a Liberty-backer’s worst-case scenario.

The total opened at 161.5 and jumped up to 163.5 on Wednesday morning, another indicator of McBride’s under-appreciated impact. In the first two games after her return, Minnesota cleared the total by 14.5 and 13.5 points before falling all of 2.5 points short of it in Saturday’s maiden victory.