Fight Night: Cub Swanson vs Hakeem Dawodu Picks and Predictions
Cub Swanson and Hakeem Dawodu are both in search of landing back into the win column, with the books labeling the more experienced Swanson as the underdog. Our UFC picks disagree with the pricing and are riding with Cub Saturday.
Saturday night’s co-main event for the UFC Fight Night card in Las Vegas will feature two featherweights in Cub Swanson and Hakeem Dawodu — two fighters looking to return to the win column after losing their most recent fights. UFC odds have Dawodu labeled as a -250 favorite while Swanson is in familiar territory as an underdog at +190.
Read ahead as I look at Swanson vs Dawodu and see how they match up to give you my best bet for the fight.
Cub Swanson vs Hakeem Dawodu fight odds
Cub Swanson vs Hakeem Dawodu method of victory odds
Cub Swanson vs Hakeem Dawodu picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Cub Swanson vs Hakeem Dawodu betting preview
It’s probably fair to say that Swanson’s best days are behind him. The soon-to-be 40-year-old has done more losing than winning over the past few years, going 3-6 in his last nine fights. However, it’s worth considering that he’s not exactly being put away by total scrubs in there as three of the losses have come vs. ranked fighters in Brian Ortega, Renato Moicano, and Giga Chikadze, while also suffering close decision losses to Frankie Edgar and Shane Burgos.
In terms of experience, Swanson has an enormous advantage. This will be Dawodu’s 10th fight within the UFC compared to the 22nd for Swanson — who has the third most wins in the history of the division and has shared the octagon with living legends like Max Holloway, Dustin Poirier, and Charles Oliveira. Dawodu has just one fight under his belt vs an opponent who’s currently ranked — Movsar Evloev — and was dominated in the fight, being taken down nine times inside three rounds.
While the takedown isn’t a big part of Swanson’s arsenal, it could be his best path to victory. He’s been finished via kicks in two of his last three fights, so taking a cautious approach would be smart against Dawodu who’s not very proficient on the mat. It’s worth noting Swanson has the fourth-best takedown accuracy percentage in the history of the featherweight division, so don’t be surprised to see the vet lean on his wrestling and grappling Saturday night.
While the experience gap is evident, Dawodu is the favorite for a reason and a clear case can be made for him. He should have the advantage on the feet as he lands more significant strikes than Swanson and also absorbs fewer — +2.18 significant striking differential for Dawodu compared to +0.95 for Swanson.
As mentioned above, Swanson has been finished via kicks in two of his last three fights. As a result, Dawodu will be looking to land a devastating kick, especially when you consider his lone finish victory inside the UFC came by a kick vs Yoshinori Horie in June of 2019.
He's also around eight years younger than Swanson whose experience could also work against him. Dawodu has been in some competitive fights, but won’t come into action with close to the same amount of wear and tear as Swanson has after countless wars over the years. Swanson is inching closer to retirement, while Dawodu might only be at the halfway point of his career.
Cub Swanson vs Hakeem Dawodu tale of the tape
Cub Swanson vs Hakeem Dawodu UFC prediction and best bet
Best bet: Swanson ML
When we add everything up, these odds don’t make a whole lot of sense to me. Dawodu as a -250 favorite suggests he has some overwhelming advantages in this fight, which simply isn’t the case. Should he be favored? Yes, but this matchup is much closer than these odds indicate, so I’ll take the value and experience of Swanson.
He’s faced much tougher competition over the years and I think it’s fair to say this is a step down in competition for him, while Dawodu is fighting a higher-level opponent compared to his last two bouts.
At this point in his career, Swanson is desperate to pick up a win, even if it means grinding one out in a potentially boring fashion. Dawodu is at his best when on his feet, so expect Swanson to be smart enough to try to make this a mud fight and get it to the mat.
Prediction: Swanson moneyline (+190 at FanDuel)
Bonus bet: Swanson by decision
If you’re feeling risky and like my line of thinking about Swanson’s approach to the fight, then this bet also makes sense. Dawodu isn’t an easy opponent to put away as he’s only been finished once in his career, while Swanson has only finished two of his last 16 opponents.
Pick: Swanson by decision (+380 at FanDuel)
