Fight Night: Max Holloway vs Arnold Allen Picks and Predictions

The featherweight division will be on showcase Saturday night when Max Holloway and Arnold Allen go toe-to-toe. Our UFC betting picks are siding with Holloway, but we don't anticipate any early stoppages in this bout.

Max Holloway is facing off against Arnold Allen in the main event of UFC Fight Night betting on Saturday, April 15. 

This should be a terrific tilt between a pair of Top 5 featherweights, with Allen looking to earn a title shot with a win against the former champ in Holloway. UFC odds opened with Holloway as the favorite at -188 favorite with Allen the slight underdog at +162.

Here are my best free picks and predictions for UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen on April 15 from the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri. 

Max Holloway vs Arnold Allen fight odds

Max Holloway vs Arnold Allen method of victory odds

Max Holloway vs Arnold Allen picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Max Holloway vs Arnold Allen betting preview

Max "Blessed" Holloway is still an elite featherweight, but after going 0-3 against the current champ he likely won't get another title shot unless Alexander Volkanovski moves up in weight. Holloway is coming off his most lopsided defeat to Volkanovski, losing by scores of 50-45 on all three judges' cards last July.

Holloway has still compiled a 16-4 record in the promotion since 2014, with those defeats to Volk and a lightweight title loss to Dustin Poirier the only blemishes on his resume during that span.

The former champ successfully defended the 145-pound belt three times and is known for his striking, with elite movement and incredible volume that he can sustain for 25 minutes.

"Blessed" averages 7.24 significant strikes per minute and holds the UFC record for most career significant strikes (2,975) and the most landed in a fight (445 vs Kattar two years ago).

"Almighty" Arnold Allen is on a 12-fight winning streak and has a perfect 10-0 record in the octagon. In his last bout, he defeated Calvin Kattar by TKO after Kattar tore his ACL and had his knee give out in the second round.

Allen did look very sharp in that fight, using his quick hands to pick apart Kattar while his movement evaded his opponent's shots in the opening round. Allen's boxing was also the difference in his prior bout against Dan Hooker, knocking him out in the first round to earn a Performance of the Night bonus. 

Allen has polished boxing ability and does a good job of setting up his power shots with leg kicks. He's also a capable grappler but hasn't utilized that part of his game much in recent years. 

Max Holloway vs Arnold Allen tale of the tape

Max Holloway vs Arnold Allen UFC prediction and best bet

Fight prediction: Holloway

Allen certainly has a path to victory since we recently saw Holloway struggle with Volkanoski's fast punches. Keep in mind that although Holloway is just 31 years old, he has already fought 26 times in the UFC and has absorbed a decent amount of punishment — especially in recent bouts against Volk and Yair Rodriguez.

However, until I actually see Holloway's chin go, I have to keep backing him to avoid damage and land more volume of his own. "Blessed" has been the cream of the crop in this division for so long and his defeats to Volk shouldn't overshadow his dominance against everybody else. 

Holloway's endless gas tank, insane output, and experience in five-round bouts should be the difference, with Allen never going past 15 minutes in his MMA career. With Allen gassing out in the third round against Sodiq Yusuff in 2021, he'll likely be unable to keep up with Holloway's pace and should get outpointed in this one. 

Prediction: Holloway moneyline (-188 at bet365)

Fight best bet: Fight to go the distance

Both of these guys are highly-technical strikers but also possess elite movement and elusiveness. Holloway is known for his granite chin while Allen has an excellent guard. Neither fighter has been knocked down in part to the reasons noted above.

Holloway has terrific boxing ability but he's a guy that tends to win by "death by a thousand cuts" as opposed to having one-punch knockout power. In fact, his last seven fights have gone the full 25 minutes.

Although Allen's last two bouts ended inside the first two rounds, the torn ACL suffered by Kattar was a fluke and Hooker has been chinny when cutting to 145. Allen's previous four bouts all went the distance and I like that happening again on Saturday. 

Pick: Fight to go the distance - Yes (-128 at FanDuel)