UFC Kansas City: Holloway vs Allen Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks

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12 April 2023

UFC Kansas City: Holloway vs Allen Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks

UFC Kansas City is the next major event on the 2023 MMA calendar, taking place on Saturday, April 16. The exciting night of hard-hitting action is headlined by a massive featherweight main event between ex-champion Max Holloway and the always-tough Arnold Allen.

Considering how both Holloway and Allen are two of the top-four fighters in the featherweight division, it’s easy to see how important a victory is. After all, Holloway has failed in two straight opportunities to reclaim the featherweight gold while Allen has yet to challenge for the title.

In what should be an exciting showdown, Holloway vs Allen doesn’t have any shortage of betting opportunities. Here’s a look at the latest odds for the UFC Kansas City main event from a handful of reputable sportsbooks, as well as a prediction and the best bet(s) for the fight.

Holloway vs Allen— Tale of the Tape

Max Holloway — Arnold Allen

Record: 23-7 — 19-1
Height: 5’11” — 5’8”
Reach: 69” — 70”
Weight: 145lbs — 145lbs
Age: 31 — 29
Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Southpaw
Knockouts: 10 — 7

UFC Kansas City: Holloway vs Allen Fight Odds (as of Wednesday, April 12)

Odds are via our top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks.

FanDuel Sportsbook

Max Holloway -196
Arnold Allen +152

Caesars Sportsbook

Max Holloway -170
Arnold Allen +140

BetRivers

Max Holloway -180
Arnold Allen +143

BetMGM

Max Holloway -175
Arnold Allen +145

Odds Point to a Holloway Victory at Kansas City

Although the odds vary, all four highlight sportsbooks are in agreement that Holloway is the favorite over Allen ahead of UFC Kansas City. The former featherweight titleholder’s shortest odds sit at -196 on FanDuel Sportsbook while the longest is -170 on Caesars Sportsbook.

The average odds for a Holloway victory over the four sources is -180, which carries an implied win probability of 64.3%.

Holloway is an interesting fighter to study. On one hand, he’s lost three of his last four fights. On the other, each of those losses came against Alexander Volkanovski, who is one of the most dominant fighters that the featherweight division has ever seen. On top of that, each of Holloway’s losses to Volkanovski came by points (two unanimously, one split).

Holloway has overcome each of his last three non-Volkanovski opponents. Those efforts include victories over the likes of Yair Rodriguez, Calvin Kattar and Frankie Edgar, so it isn’t like “Blessed” hasn’t proven that he can beat strong fighters in the past.

Having said that, winning won’t be easy for Holloway at UFC Kansas City. Allen has been a complete monster since joining the UFC back in 2015. He’s yet to lose under the promotion’s umbrella, defeating each of his first 10 fights since joining the featherweight division.

After submitting Alan Omer in his UFC debut, Allen went on to win seven consecutive fights by decision. However, he’s since been on a bit of a knockout run. Allen impressed the MMA world with a first-round TKO victory over Dan Hooker at UFC on ESPN+ 62, earning ‘performer of the night’ honors.

Allen then followed up that solid performance with another TKO win, this time against Kattar in the main event of UFC Vegas 63. While the fight did end due to the latter tearing his ACL, it doesn’t change the fact that Allen was still out-striking him 28-14 before it happened.

Defeating Holloway would certainly be the biggest win of Allen’s career thus far, making it interesting to see if he has what it takes to pull off the upset.

UFC Kansas City Betting Markets & Trends for Holloway vs Allen

Even though there’s decent value on both sides of the Holloway vs Allen moneyline, some bettors like more variety. Fortunately, FanDuel has a solid selection of markets for the headlining act.

One of the more popular markets is “method of victory.” Here, Holloway is favored to win by points at +180 odds. Of course, this is unsurprising. The 31-year-old veteran has gone the distance in each of his last seven outings, as well as in 56.7% of his career fights. Considering how Allen has yet to be finished, this option makes sense.

Speaking of Allen, his top victory method is to defeat Holloway by points at +340. The scrappy Englishman is 8-1 when his fights go the distance and even though he’s on a knockout run, it’s worth mentioning that his upcoming opponent has yet to suffer a KO/TKO loss.

Taking the above victory methods into consideration, it also isn’t shocking to see FanDuel favoring that the fight will go the distance at -122 odds.

However, if you’re opposed to that, the “method & round” combo markets might catch your eye. For example, Holloway is favored to win the fight via first-round KO/TKO at +900 — something he’s only done twice in his career.

On the flip side, Allen’s top method & combo option is also a knockout win in Round 1, albeit at +2000 odds instead. Of his seven previous knockout victories, three have occurred in the opening frame.

Holloway vs Allen UFC Kansas City Fight Prediction

In what should be a lengthy battle, I see Holloway emerging victorious at UFC Kansas City. As great as Allen has been, Holloway has been in the brightest spotlights before and is hungry to show that he still has ‘it.’ He averages more significant strikes per minute (7.24 vs. 3.40) than Allen and also has the superior mat skills to hang in there. It’ll be close, Holloway’s experience gives him the edge to survive.

I don’t see Allen getting finished, so back Holloway to win by points at +180 on FanDuel. However, if you’re uncertain about the victor, take the fight to go the distance (-122) instead. After all, the time limit has been reached in each of Holloway’s last seven fights, as well as in six of Allen’s last nine.