Five players who are frontrunners to take home NBA MVP award
The debate around last season’s NBA MVP race became toxic. When it looked like Nikola Jokic might win a third straight MVP there was considerable pushback in some quarters about him not having earned being on the level of Russell-Chamberlain-Bird because he hadn’t had enough postseason success (even though it’s a regular-season award). There was nasty speculation about why voters favored Jokic. However, quietly and while that debate raged, Jokic and the Nuggets took their foot off the gas the final month or so of the season while Joel Embiid and the 76ers had to run hard through the finish line.
Embiid ended up winning his first MVP in a close race with Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo — the second straight season that trio finished top three in what was a tight race in voters’ minds. Then Jokic went out and silenced any doubts about what he could do in the postseason.
It sets up another MVP race this season where those three must be considered in the mix, but who will try to crash the party? Here’s a look at the top five MVP candidates heading into the season.
Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets)
He is the best player on the planet and leading the defending champions — the very definition of the player to beat in the MVP race.
There’s no doubt Jokic will put up the numbers — he averaged 24.5 points, 11.8 rebounds and 9.8 assists a game last season — and the advanced stats love him like no other.
We know that Jokic is durable and his style of play is sustainable — you can count on him playing enough games and putting up monster numbers again. We know Denver will be near the top of the West. We know Jokic can be a solid defender when focused. All of that is why he is the betting favorite to win his third NBA MVP; our partner Draft Kings has him at +450.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks)
Antetokounmpo and Lillard form one of the more dynamic offensive duos in the league, although it will be interesting to see how playing with another elite scorer will impact Antetokounmpo’s counting stats. Last season he averaged 31.1 points, 11.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists a game while being one of the game’s best defenders. Antetokounmpo finished third in the MVP voting a year ago, partly because we almost seem to take his greatness for granted at this point. It’s hard for him to surpass expectations because they are ridiculously high — does having Lillard on the team put even more eyeballs on him and help his MVP cause? With the Bucks expected to be near the top of the East again, Antetokounmpo should be back in the middle of the MVP conversation.
Luka Doncic (Dallas Mavericks)
For a couple of seasons now, there has been a “Is this the season Doncic breaks through and wins an MVP award?” buzz before the season. This season is no different. Last season Doncic put up the numbers, averaging 32.4 points, 8.6 rebounds and 8 assists a game, but with the Mavericks not even making the play-in Doncic had no shot to win the award (he finished eighth).
This season the Mavericks — with a healthy Kyrie Irving all season and what should be an improved defense — look to be a solid playoff team. If so, and if Doncic meshes well with Irving and the Dallas offense clicks, he will be in the mix to earn the MVP trophy (Draft Kings has him as the second betting favorite at +500).
Joel Embiid (Philadelphia 76ers)
The reigning MVP’s chances to repeat could hinge on how well he navigates the chaos that will be James Harden in the 76ers training camp and The Beard’s ongoing trade demand.
There should be no doubt about what Embiid will do on the court — he will dominate. Last season he averaged 33.1 points, 10.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists a night while being an elite defensive anchor in the paint. He has lifted the 76ers up to contender status, even if the playoffs have not gone as he has hoped (the “what’s he done in the playoffs” narrative that dogged Jokic last season could come back on Embiid this season, even if that shouldn’t influence voters for a regular season award). The two things that could derail Embiid from repeating as MVP are his health and whether he and the rest of the 76ers can handle the dumpster fire that is the Harden situation.
Jayson Tatum (Boston Celtics)
With Marcus Smart now in Memphis (a team needing locker room leadership), it will fall to Tatum and Jaylen Brown to be the leaders of a very talented Celtics team. If Tatum can grow into that role — stepping up in the clutch on the court and holding guys accountable off it — and the Celtics thrive, Tatum will have the foundation of an MVP case.
His numbers will be there. Last season (when Tatum finished fourth in the MVP voting), he averaged 30.1 points, 8.8 rebounds and 4.6 assists a night, and he is a plus defender on the wing. If the addition of Kristaps Porzingis juices the Celtics offense and the Celtics are at or near the top of the East, Tatum will have a strong case that it’s his time to win an MVP award.
Honorable mention: Stephen Curry (Warriors), Kevin Durant (Suns), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder), Devin Booker (Suns).
