UFC Fight Night 228: Fiziev vs Gamrot Odds, Predictions & Picks (Sep. 23)

The UFC remains in Las Vegas this Saturday with a packed UFC Fight Night 228 card, headlined by an intriguing lightweight bout between Rafael Fiziev and Mateusz Gamrot. Both have suffered losses recently which derailed their chances at fighting for the lightweight title. The winner of Saturday’s fight will be back within a hair’s breadth of a title shot, while the loser will see their dreams evaporate, likely for good.

The undercard gets underway at 4 pm PT/7 pm ET with the main card tentatively scheduled to start at 7 pm PT/10 pm ET at the UFC Apex.

The main event is a classic striker-vs-wrestler matchup with the muay Thai-based Fiziev slightly favored over Gamrot, an accomplished freestyle wrestler.

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Gamrot Odds Odds

In the main event of the night, Fiziev sits as a slim -150 betting favorite over Gamrot, who comes back as a +125 underdog. Fiziev’s odds give him a 60% implied win probability with Gamrot’s +125 price tag carrying a 44.44% IP.

Taking out the vig, Fiziev’s implied win probability is 57.45% while Gamrot gets the remaining  42.55%.

Odds as of Sep. 19, 2023, at Caesars. Lock in this Caesars promo code to bet on this weekend’s UFC action and check out Caesars Sportsbook Kentucky if you live in KY

Fiziev vs Gamrot Recent Results

Fiziev suffered a truly disappointing setback at UFC 286 (March 2023) against Justin Gaethje. Riding a six-fight win streak, the Azerbaijani dropped a three-round majority decision as a heavy -240 favorite. While it was a tight contest, Gaethje deserved the win. He landed more significant strikes and scored the only takedown of the fight.

Prior to that setback, Fiziev had scored back-to-back TKO wins over Rafael Dos Anjos (July 2022) and Brad Riddell (Dec. 2021). If he had defeated Gaethje, it’s possible his next fight would have been a lightweight title shot. Now he’ll need to string together multiple victories to get back to that rarified air.

Gamrot secured a career-best victory over Arman Tsarukyan back in June 2022 only to have his own upward ascension thwarted by Beneil Dariush just four months later.

Gamrot got back in the win column in March with a split-decision win over Jalin Turner. Gamrot employed his usual tactic of shooting for takedown after takedown. He was successful on 4 of 19 and won the decision thanks to 2:07 of control over the 15-minute fight.

Fiziev vs Gamrot Tale of the Tape

Fiziev vs Gamrot Prediction

Dariush provided the exact blueprint for how a muay Thai savant can beat Gamrot. Dariush used powerful leg kicks to both score points on the cards and generally slow Gamrot down over the course of the fight. Gamrot looked to put his wrestling pedigree on display throughout, attempting 21 takedowns, but was only successful on 4 (a 19% success rate), which is well below Gamrot’s career takedown success rate of 31%.

For his career, Dariush only has an 80% takedown defense, whereas Fiziev is just over 90%, portending a good chance that Fiziev will be able to keep this fight on the feet for the majority of the three rounds.

Fiziev’s odds are as short as -170 at FanDuel Sportsbook but, as of Tuesday, Sep. 19, were still a reasonable -150 at Caesars. If the Azerbaijani does manage to stuff Gamrot’s takedown attempts to the same extent Dariush did, he is likely to win this going away. His striking is leagues better than Gamrot’s and, even if a KO isn’t in the cards against Gamrot’s solid chin, he will easily out-point the Pole in the standup game.