UFC Fight Night predictions: Best bets and picks for Fiziev vs. Gamrot card

UFC Fight Night returns to the Apex in Las Vegas this Saturday, September 23 with an 11-fight card. The preliminary card gets going at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The main card begins at 7 p.m. ET and will also be aired on ESPN+. The main event features a lightweight showdown between #6 Rafael Fiziev and #7 Mateusz Gamrot.

The co-main event features a matchup in the featherweight division, as #10 Bryce Mitchell and #12 Dan Ige square off. Mitchell enters a -205 betting favorite while Ige carries +170 underdog odds, per DraftKings Sportsbook.

Fiziev opens as a -155 favorite for the main event, while Gamrot is a +130 underdog. The favored method of victory is a Fiziev knockout (+175).

Down below we make some best bets and predictions for Saturday’s action.

UFC Fight Night predictions

Mizuki Inoue to win (-310)

A three-year lay off since Inoue was last in the octagon, as she nursed an ACL injury. In a return fight, she faces Hannah Goldy and looks for Inoue to make up for lost time. Expect Inoue to outlast Goldy, who has the last three of her last four.

Jacob Malkoun vs. Cody Brundage Over 2.5 rounds (-125)

Malkoun makes his first appearance in 2023 and takes on Brundage who is stepping in on short notice. Malkoun has won three of his last four, with a fighting style that includes plenty of grappling that slows down his opponents. Brundage is desperate for a win, losing his last three in bad fashion. Expect Malkoun to control this fight and win it by decision.

Bryce Mitchell to win by points (-115)

Mitchell had his five-fight winning streak ended at the hands of Ilia Topuria and a second-round submission at UFC 282 last December. The former standout from the Ultimate Fighter now shifts his attention to a dangerous fighter in Ige, who has won his last two fights. Look for Mitchell to utilize his grapple-first mentality to control the fight and emerge victorious.

Fiziev to win by KO in third round (+1100)

On paper, this will be a great showdown between top-notch striker and disciplined grappler. Fiziev looks to get back on track after a majority decision loss to Justin Gaethje at UFC 286. Prior to that, he had won five fights in a row. Gamrot is a tough fighter, who recently defeated Jalin Turner by split decision at UFC 285. He has won five of his last six.

Fiziev presents a few issues for Gamrot, he’s very good at defending takedowns (90% takedown defense rate) and 8 of his 12 career wins have come by knockout. Swinging for the fences, I see Fiziev breaking down the strong chin of Gamrot and prevailing with a third-round knockout win.