Flames vs Rangers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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12 February 2024

Flames vs Rangers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Flames have been red hot since returning from the All-Star break, but underlying numbers show this team is due for regression in a bad way. However, Jacob Markstrom has also been standing on his head, and our NHL odds expect few goals tonight.

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The Calgary Flames have exploded out of the All-Star break with three straight wins and will look to keep the good times rolling against the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden tonight.

New York is also unbeaten out of the break, sitting on top of the Metropolitan Division with a 17-7 record at the Garden. The Blueshirts are a healthy home favorite in the NHL odds, and Igor Shesterkin is starting after turning away 28 of 31 shots in an overtime win against the basement-dwelling Chicago Blackhawks Friday.

Here are my free NHL picks for the Flames vs. Rangers on Monday, February 12.

Flames vs Rangers odds

Flames vs Rangers predictions

The New York Rangers are good. They’ll just be a whole lot better when Igor Shesterkin finds his game. The 28-year-old Russian won the Vezina Trophy two years ago but is middling along with an .899 SV% and -0.23 goals saved above average per 60 minutes through 33 starts this season. He posted .924 and 0.42 marks through his first 100 games in the league.

If Shesterkin isn’t at his best, the Rangers aren’t a legitimate contender in the Stanley Cup odds.

The tipping point Monday is the Calgary Flames have been the beneficiary of big-time puck luck out of the break. Calgary has a league-high 16.9 shooting percentage across the past three games which is way above the 9.7% mark the Flames posted through the first 49 games of the season.

Of course, Calgary also traded away No. 1 center Elias Lindholm during the All-Star layoff, so a suddenly skyrocketing shooting efficiency isn’t sustainable. And, a quick depth-chart check goes in the favor of New York, too.

This is also a tricky schedule spot for the Flames. They’re on the final leg of a four-game roadie, and the Rangers have been off since Friday. Still, Calgary is receiving elite goaltending from No. 1 — and No. 1 trade candidate — Jacob Markstrom. He’s shown off to the tune of a .954 SV% through his past four starts, and I’m anticipating goals to be tough to come by Monday.

My best bet: Under 6.5 goals (-135 at SIA)

Flames vs Rangers same-game parlay

Under 6.5

Rangers moneyline

The Rangers are the better team, and as noted, this is a tough schedule spot for the Flames. So, in addition to my best bet, I’m tagging on the New York moneyline. The Rangers are a tough beat at home, and Shesterkin sports a 64-32 record, .920 SV% and 2.44 GAA on home ice for his career.

Additionally, as highlighted, Shesterkin’s best is still ahead this season. Calgary is also in a ripe letdown spot with the noted puck luck set to spoil.

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Flames vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

There has been decent movement to the New York side of this moneyline with a 10 cents to the dollar shift since the Rangers opened at -150 through bet365. The Blueshirts are ranging from a -155 to -160 favorite across the most popular stops, and I’m not expecting a significant change in the numbers ahead of puck drop with both starting goaltenders confirmed.

Most shops are hanging a 6.0 number with the Over carrying the higher vig. I still love the Under across the board. Calgary is eyeing offensive statistical correction, and New York has surrendered the eighth-fewest goals per game (2.79) this season.