Florida State football prediction, preview vs. Miami Hurricanes

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01 January 0001

Florida State football prediction, preview vs. Miami Hurricanes

Florida State football already clinched a spot in the ACC Championship Game, but that does not mean the work is done.

The No. 4 Seminoles (9-0, 7-0 ACC) take on rival Miami (6-3, 2-3) at 3:30 p.m. Saturday at Doak Campbell Stadium with ABC set to broadcast the rivalry game. FSU is looking to make it three straight over the Hurricanes, completing the first part of winning the "state title" for the second consecutive season.

FSU has won 15 straight games dating back to last season. It saw a 14-game streak of scoring 30 or more points snapped last week in a 24-7 victory over Pittsburgh, but displayed its strong depth with star receivers Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman out.

Head coach Mike Norvell and his Seminoles enter as 14.5-point favorites over the Hurricanes, per Bet Online, as of Thursday morning.

Last season, FSU handed Miami an embarrassing 45-3 loss at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens.

The Hurricanes, coming off a 20-6 loss to NC State and are looking to snap a recent funk with three losses in their last five games after a 4-0 start.

Miami leads the all-time series with FSU 35-32.

So, how will this game likely unfold? Why would the Seminoles win, and why would the Hurricanes come out with the victory? Below is a breakdown of those scenarios, along with a score prediction.

Why Florida State will win

Once again this season, the Seminoles enter this contest as clearly the better team on paper.

Redshirt senior quarterback Jordan Travis is playing the best football of his career and is always motivated to play well against Miami. Travis is coming off a season-high passing performance with 360 yards through the air against Pitt.

If Travis has his top two receivers back - Coleman and Wilson - he could have another day to prove he is a Heisman Trophy contender, if not the frontrunner.

On the other side of the ball, the Seminoles have continued to excel against the pass and are facing a team facing a QB dilemma.

Starter Tyler Van Dyke has 11 turnovers (10 interceptions) in his last four starts, with Miami going 1-3 in those games. Freshman Emory Williams started the overtime victory over Clemson two weeks ago.

Miami head coach Mario Cristobal did not indicate a change was in the works against FSU but was also non-committal to Van Dyke keeping the role.

Either way, the Hurricanes are in a hard spot against a talented secondary. The Seminoles are 24th in the nation allowing just 191 yards per game and fourth in the nation in passing defense efficiency at 101.67. The four passing touchdowns are tied for the fewest allowed with Michigan.

Why Miami will win

The Hurricanes do one thing well in which the Seminoles have shown a weakness on both sides of the ball: the running game.

Defensively, FSU is 57th in the nation allowing 140.2 yards per game this season.

Mark Fletcher - a true freshman - had his first 100-yard game of his career with 23 rushes for 115 yards last week in the loss to NC State. He could be a weapon for the Hurricanes in this one, as they look to play defense with their offense by keeping Travis off the field.

If the running game can give the Seminoles fits, the passing game could find its footing and give the Hurricanes a chance to pull off the upset in the rivalry game.

Miami has allowed just 89.2 yards per game on the ground and 2.91 yards per rush, while FSU ranks 58th in the nation with 164.4 rushing yards per game. The Seminoles had just 134 rushing yards last week against the Panthers, with 55 coming on a single run from Trey Benson.

The Hurricanes taking away the run game again and putting constant pressure on Travis in third-and-long situations could be a formula to win.

FSU vs. Miami prediction

This one will remain close in the first half with the Hurricanes hanging tough due to the adrenaline of the rivalry game and the memory of what the Seminoles did last season. But FSU is just the more talented team on paper and as healthy as it has been in a while.

Travis finishes with a four-touchdown performance, adding to his strong resume of late. He'll have a 'Heisman moment' in this game and get the voters thinking of his chances of winning the award.

FSU scores a few touchdowns late in the third and early in the fourth quarter to push the game out of reach and allow Travis to wear his baseball cap for the final four minutes.

Ehsan Kassim's prediction: Florida State 38, Miami 20

"Quote It": Mike Norvell vs. Mario Cristobal

Mike Norvell, FSU: "I mean, it's everything from the past, the tradition, the legacy. Just an incredible matchup. You have two in-state schools and there's been a lot of success within these teams and these programs over the years. Just some of the greatest, greatest games.

"Our players know them. They know us. It's a heated one. It's what college football is all about. I think in today's age where you see a lot of rivalries that are now being split, I mean, this is what makes it special."

Mario Cristobal, Miami: "I think it’s always a good time for a rivalry game, it’s what college football has always been and will always be about. The intensity, the pageantry, and the passion behind it is awesome, it’s incomparable.”