Florida State vs. Boston College odds and picks: Seminoles lay large spread
Week 3 of the 2023 college football season kicks off early on Saturday with No. 3 Florida State visiting ACC foe Boston College.
Florida State is off to a fast start and showing legitimate national title aspirations, while the Eagles of Boston College will look to claim a huge early-season home victory in-conference.
In this Florida State vs. Boston College betting preview, we'll look at the FSU-BC game lines, odds and our picks for the noon contest.
Florida State Seminoles vs. Boston College Eagles Game Facts
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 16
- Kickoff time: noon ET
- Location: Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, Maryland
- Line: Seminoles -25.5, O/U 55
No. 3 Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles Odds
When this line opened, interest bumped it from Florida State -25 to as high as -27.5 before coming back down to -26 on consensus. The shortest current spread on FSU is
As we collected more information by the week on team profiles, though, we still show a significant edge for the Seminoles by one computer’s metrics.
ABC will air it to a national audience, which will likely get bored by halftime. Our numbers reveal a potential Florida State 40-point wipeout, so we favor that cushion and give the points.
No. 3 Florida State Seminoles (2-0, 2-0 ATS)
Former Tulane quarterback and current Vegas media personality Shaun King raved about Seminoles coach Mike Norvell before their opener against LSU.
King also picked FSU to beat the Bayou Bengals, prescient since the ’Noles ran away with the second half in their 45-24 victory.
“A tremendous coach,” King told me about Norvell, “but you don’t ever hear him mentioned as such. They will sustain their success.”
As an away favorite in his coaching career, Norvell, a former receiver at Central Arkansas, is 13-6 against the number.
His rebuild in Tallahassee took two seasons, and FSU’s 8-5 campaign a year ago included a triumph over Oklahoma in a thrilling Cheez-It Bowl.
Now he has the Seminoles poised for realistic national-title aspirations, and a tilt at Clemson next week doesn’t look so daunting after the Tigers’ 28-7 season-opening defeat at Duke.
King also gave a slight edge to FSU quarterback Jordan Travis over LSU’s Jayden Daniels. Travis went 23-for-31 for 342 yards, four touchdowns and a pick against the Tigers. Daniels was 22-37, 346, one TD and one interception.
Travis is a savvy scrambler whose favorite receiver is 6-foot-4, 210-pound junior Keon Coleman, who began his career at Michigan State.
He has nabbed 12 passes for a 14.2-yard average and four TDs. Defenders must be especially alert to Coleman’s stellar hurdling ability.
Receiver Deuce Spann (23) and tight end Jaheim Bell (24.5) both average more than 20 yards per catch.
Trey Benson, a 6-foot-1, 223-pound junior tailback, rattled off three consecutive triple-digit yardage games a year ago and nearly hit 1,000 in his second-team All-ACC effort.
He’s the Seminoles’ Danger Man on the ground, with 126 yards and three TDs. The Mississippi native started his career at Oregon.
Caziah Holmes and Lawrance Toafili complement Benson, and all three runners keep opposing linebackers honest with their above-average ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.
Norvell has a multi-pronged attack that might not seem lethal. However, it’s third in the country with 0.81 points per play, a sneaky-elite rating showing that Florida State belongs in the playoff picture.
In fact, our prized computer has the ’Noles at No. 1, with some space between it and Georgia, Alabama and Texas.
No. 3 Florida State at Boston College Full Sportsbook Odds
Boston College Eagles (1-1, 0-2 ATS)
As 8-point home favorites, the Eagles were zapped by Northern Illinois in extra time to open the season. I know many wise bettors who, early that week, eagerly snatched the Huskies on a moneyline of around +300.
BC’s offense has some troubling aspects. At 4.4 yards-per-throw, only 10 passing attacks are worse in the country.
Thomas Castellanos, a 5-foot-10, 196-pound sophomore who beat 6--foot-6, 240-pound Emmett Morehead for the starter’s job in fall camp, has thrown four TD passes, had one picked off and lost a fumble.
If fourth-year coach Jeff Hafley (2-9 vs. Top-25 teams) makes a switch to Morehead, that will signal a long day for the home team.
Hafley was given a five-year extension in November 2021, but local grumbling began after BC’s first defeat to UConn (in seven games) — in which the Eagles had more turnovers than points, 5-3 — last November.
Last weekend’s 31-28 victory over Holy Cross likely didn’t mollify those who remember the double-digit-victory seasons of 2006 and ’07.
A defeat to the Seminoles will make BC 6-17 over its past 23 games, increasing the heat on Hafley.
Florida State averages a top-15 221 rushing yards. The Seminoles also own a top-10 points-per-play margin of 0.530, while BC’s is 0.012 — again, middling.
The overall picture, to Boston College, is quite imposing, since FSU’s unit rankings — in Phil Steele’s comprehensive preseason annual — are top-11 most everywhere, third in offensive line and seventh at defensive line, plus 14th at linebacker.
Everywhere, the Seminoles are far superior.
Betting Pick for Florida State vs. Boston College
It will require much more than an average effort for Boston College to keep pace with third-ranked Florida State in Chestnut Hill, but we can’t picture the Eagles’ defense being able to corral the Seminoles.
Again, we calculate a 40-point wipeout for the visitors.
However, we will continue our early-season tack of wagering a half-unit, due to the zany aspect of the college game that we’ve already witnessed.
“Remember,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews reminded us several days ago, “we’re betting on 18- to 20-year-old kids. That’s a lot of volatility.”
