LSU vs. Florida State odds, prediction, betting trends for Week 1 Sunday matchup
No. 5 LSU meets No. 8 Florida State in the first top-10 matchup of the 2023 college football season Sunday.
Game time is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla. The matchup will be televised on ABC.
This is the first sizable piece in the College Football Playoff puzzle. LSU finished 10-4 and won the SEC West in Brian Kelly’s first season, and fifth-year senior quarterback Jayden Daniels will lead the Tigers’ offense. The defense returns sophomore edge rusher Harold Perkins and picked up a few key transfers, but standout defensive end Maason Smith – who was injured in last year’s loss to the Seminoles – is serving a one-game suspension for a violation of NCAA rules. Still, expectations are high in Baton Rouge again.
Florida State finished 10-3 in a breakout season for coach Mike Norvell, and the Seminoles are a popular pick to win the ACC in 2023. That conversation starts with quarterback Jordan Travis and a loaded supporting cast that features Trey Benson, Johnny Wilson and Michigan State transfer Keon Coleman on offense. Defensive lineman Jared Verse – who should be a top-10 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft – leads the defense.
This is the 11th meeting between the schools, and Florida State holds an 8-2 advantage in the series. Here's everything to know about betting on the Week 1 opener between the Tigers and Seminoles.
LSU vs. Florida State odds
Here are the odds for Sunday's game between LSU and Florida State.
- Spread: LSU -2.5
- Over/under: 57.5
- Moneyline: LSU -145, Florida State +120
LSU was a three-point favorite in last year’s game, which the Seminoles won 24-23 after a blocked extra point with no time remaining. Florida State led that game 7-3 at halftime. The over is six points higher this time, which is a nod to the improved offenses around Daniels and Travis. It dropped a point from the opening line.
Three trends to know
— The Seminoles were 1-2 S/U as an underdog last season, and Florida State is 5-12 S/U an underdog through the Norvell era. The Seminoles are 9-8 ATS and nearly covered in the loss to Clemson last season.
—LSU was 6-2 S/U and 4-4 ATS as a favorite in Kelly’s first season. The two S/U losses were the bookends to the regular season against Florida State and Texas A&M.
—LSU is 10-2 against ACC opponents since 2000, and that includes last year’s loss to the Seminoles. The SEC is 26-11 against the ACC in the last four seasons. This will be used as a strength-of-schedule barometer for both conferences in this year’s College Football Playoff rankings.
Three things to watch
Jordan Travis, Heisman contender?
Travis is dangerous in the running game, but he ranked fifth in the FBS with 9.0 yards per passing attempt last season. Florida State should have an even better down-field passing attack with Wilson – who averaged 20.9 yards per catch last season – and Coleman – a former Michigan State basketball player who will be useful in 50-50 situations in the red zone. LSU’s cornerbacks are new across the board with Southeast Louisiana transfer Zy Alexander, Syracuse transfer Duce Chestnut and freshman Javian Toviano. They will have to be on point against that down-field attack, especially early in the game. Travis was 20 of 33 for 260 yards and two TDs, and he added 31 rushing yards in last year’s victory.
Jayden Daniels, Heisman contender?
Florida State might think they are seeing a completely different quarterback. In last year’s game, Daniels completed 25 of 34 passes for 209 yards and two TDs, and he rushed for 114 yards on 16 carries. A lot of those attempts, however, were a product of scrambling out of the pocket early. He drove LSU 99 yards in the final minute for the potential game-tying score. Will Daniels be more efficient in this game and run less? NFL scouts will enjoy the matchup between LSU receiver Malik Nabers and Florida State cornerback Fentrell Cypress II on those occasions. Travis and Daniels have both been getting Heisman hype all summer. Which quarterback lives up to it?
Who fills in for Maason Smith?
Last year, Smith suffered a season-ending injury while celebrating after a play against the Seminoles. This year, he will miss the game for taking part in an autograph session before NIL was no longer against the rules. It is a huge loss for the Tigers, but Mekhi Wingo remains at nose tackle and West Virginia transfer Jordan Jefferson and Florida transfer Jalen Lee will fill in for Smith. The Tigers also have a pair of new linebackers in Oregon State transfer Omar Speights and Notre Dame defensive end Ovie Oghoufo. LSU defensive tackle Matt House has a lot of talent to work with, but keep an eye on the alignment and communication early against that Florida State up-tempo offense.
Stat that matters
Neither team could get the running backs going in last year’s game, and that contributed to the wild back-and-forth in the fourth quarter. Florida State running backs combined for 18 carries for 55 yards – an average of 3.1 yards per carry. LSU running backs combined for 13 carries for 35 yards – an average of 2.7 yards per carry. Benson will take another crack at that LSU front seven, and the Tigers’ will have Noah Cain, Josh Williams and Notre Dame transfer Logan Diggs. It’s can’t just be Travis and Daniels in the running game this time.
LSU vs. Florida State prediction
Smith’s absence has thrown us for a loop, but he was injured in last year’s matchup, too. Florida State struggled to run the ball, and the key will be containing Travis outside the pocket. The to-do list is the same for both teams, and this game could play out a lot like last year. Expect a slow first half before the offenses settle in, and the fourth quarter should be fantastic. LSU wins the fourth quarter again, and this time it’s enough to secure a tight victory.
Final score: LSU 32, Florida State 29
