FSU football prediction, preview vs. Clemson in pivotal ACC game
CLEMSON, S.C. - Florida State football started the 2023 college football season with two statement wins.
The No. 4 Seminoles, however, struggled at Boston College last week. They escaped with a 31-29 victory, raising some questions about the team's national championship aspirations.
Luckily, fans won't have to wait long to get answers on where FSU (3-0, 1-0 ACC) sits, as it faces Clemson (2-1, 0-1) in an important ACC matchup at noon Saturday here in Memorial Stadium on ABC.
FSU head coach Mike Norvell has led FSU to nine straight victories dating back to last season and the team enters as 2-point favorites over the Tigers, per Bet Online, betting sides, as of Thursday morning.
A victory for the Seminoles would catapult them over the ACC heavyweight over the last decade in Clemson. It would also solidify them as the ACC favorite and a College Football Playoff contender.
But that's easier said than done. The Seminoles have not beaten the Tigers since 2014. Their last win in Death Valley came in 2013, the last time the team won the National Championship.
For Clemson, its season is on the line this week.
The Tigers lost their season opener 28-7 on the road to Duke. Following back-to-back wins over Charleston Southern and Florida Atlantic, this will be a make-or-break game for their season. If Clemson wins, it remains alive in the ACC and the CFB. A loss means the likely end of both.
Why Florida State will win
As has been the case often this season, the FSU offense will put up points. Through three games, the Seminoles' 19 touchdowns are tied for seventh most in college football. The 147 total points and 47.3 points per game also rank seventh.
Even against a talented Clemson defense, expect quarterback Jordan Travis and company to put up points.
But this game will likely come down to if the Seminoles can get off the field on third down.
Boston College converted 8-of-19 third downs and were 4-for-5 on fourth down conversions. BC converted third downs with an average distance of 9.8 yards to go. FSU recorded just two 3-and-outs on the day.
In particular, the FSU secondary struggled to cover receivers when Thomas Castellanos scrambled and the linebackers struggled to keep him contained when he tucked and ran.
While Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik is not the athlete Castellanos is, he is a good enough athlete to burn the Seminoles if they struggle in that regard.
Then you add the duo of Will Shipley and Phil Mafah have been impressive this season and what they do will be a key. Shipley leads the team with 36 carries for 225 yards (6.3 yards per carry) and Mafah has 25 for 166 (6.6).
Why Clemson will win
As Norvell pointed out, the Tigers have been a better team in their last six quarters compared to the first six quarters of the season.
Against the Blue Devils, Clemson racked up 422 total yards of offense but scored only seven points due to three turnovers - including two in the red zone.
The Tigers had two more turnovers - including a pick-six - and trailed 17-14 at halftime against Charleston Southern. At halftime, however, a flip was switched. Clemson outscored the Buccaneers 42-0 in the second half and have not looked back.
If the duo of Shipley and Mafahcan run well and keep Travis on the sideline, they will follow a plan similar to Boston College's last week of limiting possessions for the FSU offense.
Klubnik also needs to avoid turnovers. He has completed 66.4% of his passes for 693 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions.
FSU vs. Clemson prediction
Last week's performance against Boston College was alarming. The Seminoles followed it up with one of their worst practices since fall camp began, on Tuesday. Wednesday's practice was a lot smoother, but the concerns are now there.
This one will be close throughout with Shipley taking a late touchdown to help the Tigers pull away late on a fourth-quarter touchdown run with two minutes left.
Travis will have one more chance to win the ballgame and help him jump into the Heisman Trophy conversation again. But they won't be able to pull off the go-ahead TD.
FSU has not won in Clemson since 2013 and the Tigers are going to be motivated to keep their championship aspirations alive. Both those things play a factor in the end.
Ehsan Kassim's score prediction: Clemson 38, Florida State 34
Jack William's score prediction: Florida State 38, Clemson 34
GAME INFORMATION
Who: AP No. 4 FSU (3-0, 1-0 ACC) at Clemson (2-1, 0-1)
When/where: Saturday, Sept. 23, noon.; Memorial Stadium, Clemson, S.C.
TV/Radio: ABC/94.9 FM
Live game updates: www.Tallahassee.com; @Ehsan_Kassim on Twitter; @JackGWilliams on Twitter; @JimHenryTALLY on Twitter
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