Florida vs. Utah odds, spread, start time: 2023 college football picks, Week 1 predictions from proven model
It's payback time for the 14th-ranked Utah Utes on Thursday when they host the Florida Gators at Rice-Eccles Stadium to kick off their 2023 college football season. The Utes visited the Gators to open last season, losing 29-26 in the Swamp. They rebounded to post their second straight 10-win season and finished 10th in the AP poll despite a 35-21 loss to Penn State in the Rose Bowl. Florida went to the Las Vegas Bowl, where they lost 30-3 to Oregon State to finish 6-7. That gave them consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1979. The quarterback situation will be a big story in the matchup, with former Wisconsin starter Graham Mertz transferring in to lead the Florida offense. Utah quarterback Cam Rising is coming off a torn ACL suffered in the Rose Bowl and is considered doubtful.
Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET in Salt Lake City, Utah. The latest SportsLine consensus odds for Florida vs. Utah list the Utes as 4.5-point favorites, and the over/under for total points scored is 44. Before making any Utah vs. Florida picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Florida vs. Utah and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's CFB picks. Here are several college football odds and trends for Utah vs. Florida:
- Florida vs. Utah spread: Utah -4.5
- Florida vs. Utah over/under: 44 points
- Florida vs. Utah money line: Gators +166, Utes -200
- FLA: The Gators are 2-12 in their last 14 road games against ranked opponents
- UTAH: Utah's 5.5 per-carry rushing average since 2021 is the best in FBS
- Florida vs. Utah picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why Utah can cover
Utah will be fired up to avenge last year's loss, and the crowd will be ready. Utah hasn't lost in its last 28 non-conference home games. They are 23-1 in their past 24 overall at Rice-Eccles, with the loss coming to USC with no fans in attendance during the pandemic. Utah averaged 46.7 points per game at home in 2022. It appears that Rising won't go, but Bryson Barnes was the backup in 2022 and has appeared in 13 games, while Nate Johnson is raw but has potential game-changing ability.
Ja'Quinden Jackson should be the lead runner, and the sophomore averaged 6.8 yards per carry in 2022. He rushed for 303 yards and six TDs on 36 carries (8.4 ypc) in the final three games. The Utes averaged 5.4 yards per carry (seventh in FBS) in 2022. Utah converted on third down 50.6% of the time, seventh-best in FBS, and faces a Florida defense that was third-worst (50.3%). The Gators scored 27.7 points per game in 2002 and allowed 27.9, while Utah scored 36 and yielded 22.5. The Gators are 8-13 all-time in season openers on the road. See which team to pick here.
Why Florida can cover
Florida had a rough season in its first year under coach Billy Napier, but his offense improved by six points per game in his second season at Louisiana. Offense wasn't the Gators' biggest problem last season, as they scored almost 28 points per game and averaged 5.3 yards per carry (14th in FBS). Four starters return on each side of the ball, but 13 players came over through the transfer portal and recruiting has been strong. Quarterback Anthony Richardson was selected fourth overall in the NFL draft, but Mertz transferred in from Wisconsin.
Mertz started three seasons for the Badgers, completing 60% of his passes while throwing for 38 touchdowns. He should have more weapons with the Gators. Senior Ricky Pearsall had 661 receiving yards in 2022, and Montrell Johnson Jr. (841 yards) and Trevor Etienne (718 yards) are a dangerous duo out of the backfield. The Gators rushed for 283 yards, with Etienne getting 64 on just five carries, and averaged 7.2 yards per play in last year's meeting. UF is 30-1 in season openers since 1990, and Utah has lost three straight openers against FBS opponents. See which team to pick here.
How to make Utah vs. Florida picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 49 points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
