Texas State vs. Rice odds, line, spread: 2023 First Responder Bowl picks, predictions from proven model

The Texas State Bobcats take part in their first-ever bowl game when they face the Rice Owls on Tuesday in the 2023 First Responder Bowl. The Bobcats (7-5), who tied with South Alabama and Arkansas State at 4-4 and in second place in the Sun Belt Conference West Division this season, have lost three of five after a 5-2 start. The Owls (6-6), who tied with South Florida and Navy at 4-4 and in fifth place in the American Athletic Conference, have won two in a row. Rice is taking part in its 14th bowl game, going 7-6 and winning three of the last five it has played in.

Kickoff from Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas is set for 5:30 p.m. ET. The all-time series is tied 2-2, with Rice winning the last meeting 38-28 in 1987. The Bobcats are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Texas State vs. Rice odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 59. Before making any Rice vs. Texas State picks, you need to see the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a strong profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. The model enters bowl season a profitable 13-9 on top-rated spread picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Texas State vs. Rice and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine to see the model's CFB picks. Here are several college football odds and trends for Rice vs. Texas State:

• Texas State vs. Rice spread: Texas State -3.5
• Texas State vs. Rice over/under: 59 points
• Texas State vs. Rice: Texas State -178, Rice +148
• TXST: The Bobcats have hit the money line in 7 of their last 12 games (+14.90 units)
• RICE: The Owls have hit the game total under in their last 3 games (+3.00 units)
• Texas State vs. Rice picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Texas State vs. Rice live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why Texas State can cover

Redshirt sophomore quarterback TJ Finley will be making his 13th start of the year. He has completed 264 of 385 passes (68.6%) for 3,287 yards and 24 touchdowns with eight interceptions, and had five rushing scores. Finley finished the regular season with a pair of 300-plus yard passing and three-TD performances. In the 52-44 win over South Alabama on Nov. 25, Finley completed 19 of 28 passes (67.9%) for 368 yards and three touchdowns with one interception.

Sophomore running back Ismail Mahdi helps power the Texas State ground attack. In 12 games, including five straight starts to end the year, he has carried 199 times for 1,209 yards (6.1 average) and 10 touchdowns. He also caught 18 passes for 276 yards (15.3 average) and one TD. His best game was a 21-carry, 216-yard and two touchdown performance in a 35-24 win over Nevada on Sept. 23. See which team to pick here.

Why Rice can cover

Redshirt freshman AJ Padgett will get the start at quarterback for the Owls. Although he has played in just four games this season, he completed 63.5% of his throws on 61 of 96 passing for 636 yards and seven touchdowns with three interceptions. In a 24-21 win over Florida Atlantic on Nov. 25, he completed 24 of 37 passes (64.9%) for 255 yards and three touchdowns. He was intercepted once.

Rice has a one-two punch at running back with junior Dean Connors and redshirt senior Juma Otoviano. Connors led the Owls in rushing, carrying 106 times for 707 yards (6.7 average) and five touchdowns, while Otoviano rushed 85 times for 312 yards (3.7 average) and four scores. In a 28-7 win at Charlotte on Nov. 18, Connors rushed 19 times for 184 yards. His other big day was a nine-carry, 120-yard and three-TD effort in a 42-10 win at Tulsa on Oct. 19. See which team to pick here.

How to make Rice vs. Texas State picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 64 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.