Flyers vs. Wild prediction: NHL odds, picks, best bets
Don’t look now, but John Tortorella’s Flyers could make the Metropolitan Division even more competitive than we had already thought.
While still amidst the infancy of a rebuild, this lineup of miscellany has been a surprise through its first six games.
Philadelphia has sprung out to a 3-2-1 start with a +2 goal differential.
It’s reeling from back-to-back one-goal losses to Dallas and Vegas, but the Flyers are contending in games against better teams.
This implies there is plenty of early underdog value, especially against the likes of a team like the Minnesota Wild on Thursday night.
Minnesota has been a fringe team for several years and — unlike the Flyers — features several household-name players.
They are also 3-2-1, but the Wild have been clumsy — already having played in three games that touched double-digit goal totals.
Marc-Andre Fleury and Filip Gustavsson have combined for an .882 save percentage and the Wild are allowing the sixth most expected goals against right now.
This is a lofty drop from last season’s No. 3 overall team save percentage, which compensated for the below-league average expected goal rate, shot differential and high-danger shots last season.
The Wild lineup gets balanced offensive contribution, but nobody eclipsed the 80-goal plateau in 2022-23.
I realize we’re not deep enough into the season to truly digest how the numbers bake, but for what it’s worth, the Flyers rank fifth in expected goals rate and are tied for fourth in high-danger shots.
Conjuring consistent offense is going to be a puzzle as Travis Konecny is the only player averaging more than one point thus far.
But the Flyers have competed by wearing down the opposition: They block 17.5 shots and kill penalties at an 85 percent rate.
Carter Hart’s play has also been a refreshing upgrade.
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The 25-year-old has stopped .922 percent of shots along with a 2.21 GAA and one shutout.
If he can sustain this pace, the Flyers’ structure is sound enough to steal some wins.
It would be a grandiose claim to suggest Philadelphia will be playoff contenders, but given the lowly perception of the Flyers’ potential heading into the season, the market doesn’t seem to know how to value early signs of a stiff hockey team — and that’s the Tortorella brand.
The Flyers have been more than the sum of their parts and facing a blurred-identity club like Minnesota on home ice presents an attractive underdog play.
The play: Flyers moneyline (+112).
