Food City Dirt Race Picks, Predictions, Odds 2023: Back Drivers With Dirt Racing Backgrounds

sportsbookreview.com

07 April 2023

Food City Dirt Race Picks, Predictions, Odds 2023: Back Drivers With Dirt Racing Backgrounds

Bristol Motor Speedway will be covered in dirt as NASCAR stars descend for an Easter Sunday night race. Our Food City Dirt Race predictions highlight a trio of drivers with ample dirt-racing experience based on the best NASCAR odds.

The NASCAR Cup Series will continue its spring short-track racing stint this weekend at the Bristol Motor Speedway. The action will culminate under the lights on Easter Sunday with the Food City Dirt Race.

Kyle Busch is the defending Food City Dirt Race winner. However, he was simply the beneficiary of Tyler Reddick and Chase Briscoe getting into each other on the final lap of last year’s race.

Fresh off of his first win of the season at Richmond, Kyle Larson is the consensus favorite to take the checkered flag at Bristol. Reddick and Christopher Bell are close behind, but bettors have a number of opportunities to net a larger return on drivers further down the board.

Here are our best bets for the 2023 Food City Dirt Race (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, and SuperBook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Food City Dirt Race best bets

Outright winner: Chase Briscoe (+1000 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
Top 10 finish: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+100 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
Group E matchup: Austin Dillon (+270 via SuperBook) vs. Kevin Harvick, Bubba Wallace, and Josh Berry ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Food City Dirt Race odds

Food City Dirt Race predictions

Outright winner: Chase Briscoe (+1000 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

Let us first acknowledge that oddsmakers are fully justified in listing Briscoe a rung or two below the three favorites to win the Food City Dirt Race. This sentiment gains traction based on the first several races of the 2023 season alone, as Briscoe and the entire Stewart-Haas team have largely been a step behind.

With that being said, there is clearly some discrepancy in the market on Briscoe’s outright odds this week. With some shops listing the third-year Cup Series driver as low as +750 to win, the 10/1 price at DraftKings becomes that much more appealing.

Briscoe’s driver rating of 95.8 ranked ninth in this race last year. He also won Stage 2 and was set to finish top two before he went for the win on the final lap and wrecked himself upon making contact with Reddick. There is no reason to believe the No. 14 car can’t contend again this weekend.

Top-10 finish: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+100 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

After a strong start last week was derailed by a mishap on pit road, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. figures to have an opportunity at redemption on Sunday night. Like the betting favorites to win the Food City Dirt Race, Stenhouse also has an extensive dirt racing background.

Since winning the biggest race of the year, the No. 47 team has been pretty average in terms of finishes. Betting on Stenhouse to win outright at Bristol is probably a stretch, but a top-10 finish is well within his reach.

In the inaugural Bristol Dirt Race two years ago, Stenhouse earned points in both stages and went on to finish runner-up in the race. He also was a top-10 car in the first stage last year before enduring setbacks in the middle of the race en route to finishing 29th.

A notable price discrepancy only adds to the appeal of betting on Stenhouse to finish top 10 this week. Caesars’ +100 price on this prop offers a ton of value compared to the -140 listing found at FanDuel.

Group E matchup: Austin Dillon (+270 via SuperBook) vs. Kevin Harvick, Bubba Wallace, and Josh Berry ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Targeting drivers with dirt racing backgrounds remains the best handicapping strategy for this event. Of the four-driver group matchups listed across the market, Group E is the most interesting.

In the first two Food City Dirt Races, Dillon failed to make good on his background of racing in this discipline. That said, he was running solid enough a year ago prior to getting caught up in an accident. His driver rating of 84 in that race ranked 13th and suggests that a better showing could be imminent this time around.

NASCAR Cup Series veterans Kevin Harvick and Bubba Wallace have no background on dirt whatsoever aside from running at Bristol. While Josh Berry does have a history of dirt and short-track racing, this will be his first go at taming the makeshift dirt track at Bristol.

With the odds for all four drivers virtually identical, backing AD3 at +270 makes for a very attractive wager.