NASCAR Cup Series: Food City Dirt Race Betting Analysis and Predictions

NASCAR Cup Series heads to Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, Tennessee, for the 2022 Food City Dirt Race this Easter Sunday, April 17. It will mark the ninth race on the NASCAR 2022 schedule, contested over 250 laps on the muddy and slippery track. Let’s check the Food City Dirt Race Betting Picks.

As a dirt race, the Bristol Motor Speedway will produce an experience like no other race so far this season. So, for the most part, we can throw all of the drivers’ success over the opening eight races out of the window. Perhaps that’s not entirely true.

Last races records

The 2022 Food City Dirt Race will mark only the second running of the race, which was first held in 2021. As such, we don’t have many past results to work with; granted, we saw last that drivers who usually do well on dirt should deliver in Bristol.

The 2021 Food City Dirt Race was won by Joey Logano, who finished the race ahead of Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Denny Hamlin in third. Logano led 61 of 253 laps on the day, which was far below Martin Truex Jr (126), who finished the race in 19th. Most notably, the two drivers were just two of five that led a lap in 2021.

Last year’s race also showed that the Food City Dirt Race could see many cautions, as there were ten in 2021, seven of which were due to crashes.

Race Information

• Time, day: Sunday, April 17, 7 pm EDT
• Location of the race: Bristol, Tennessee
• Track: Bristol Motor Speedway

Food City Dirt Race Betting Picks

Pick 1: William Byron

It is very hard to ignore William Byron ahead of the 2022 Food City Dirt Race. He is in phenomenal form this season, and as many sports betting guides will tell you, he is the hottest driver in NASCAR Cup Series.

The NASCAR odds have him priced at close to +1400, which seems way too high in our book, especially if we look back and see what Byron has already achieved in 2022. He won his second race last weekend and has done well in Bristol in 2021.

Last year he started this race in eighth place and finished sixth. Moreover, he had the fifth-highest rating on the track and 21 fastest laps. Even more impressive is that Byron has ran all of the 250 laps inside the top-15.

Although he hadn’t won in 2021, he has proven himself capable of competing for the win. And with the incredible form he has been showing this season, it’s only fair to expect him to do well this Sunday.

Pick 2: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. hasn’t had the best season so far, which explains why he is one of the outsiders on the Food City Dirt Race odds. However, as noted above, we can throw most of the results from the NASCAR 2022 out of the window for this race solely because Food City Dirt Race is like no other.

Looking back, Stenhouse Jr. has yet to win a race this season, nor has he come close. His best finish was 10th at Fontana, while his second-best finish came in the next race when he placed 21st in Las Vegas. These figures make it very clear that Stenhouse Jr. hasn’t had the best season so far, but we don’t care too much about that.

What we do care about is Stenhouse Jr.’s experience and history on dirt tracks. Last year, he finished both stages of the Food City Dirt Race inside the top-10 and finished the race as a runner-up. Admittedly, Stenhouse Jr. might not look like one of the most appealing NASCAR picks for this race, but he historically does well on dirt, so watch out for him!

Pick 3: Erik Jones

Erik Jones is an even bigger outsider but also one of the NASCAR betting picks we’re most excited about ahead of this weekend’s race. He has claimed a top-15 finish in three of his last four races this season, which is fairly decent.

Moreover, he was excellent in this race last year, when he finished ninth despite starting the race in 24th. He also ran 80% of all laps inside the top-15 and had one of the highest ratings in the latter stages of the race.

Like Stenhouse Jr., Jones has not achieved much this season, but he has a bronze medal from Fontana, a ninth-place finish from COTA, and a 13th-place finish from last weekend’s race. So while he might not be the most exciting driver of the Cup Series, Jones has shown enough to be added to any betting guides as one of the outsiders to keep an eye on.

Food City Dirt Race Betting Trends

• The first race on the dirt was held at Bristol Motor Speedway in 2021
• Joey Logano won the first Food City Dirt Race while leading 61 of 253 total laps
• Martin Truex Jr. led the most laps on the day (126) but finished 19th
• Only five drivers led at least one lap in the first race, and 18 finished on the lead lap
• In 2021, we saw ten cautions, seven of which came due to accidents

Food City Dirt Race Betting Predictions

With so many great drivers attending the race, it’s tough to make a choice on who to bet on. Obviously, you should put more emphasis on drivers with experience driving on dirt, but even that leaves you with a handful of names to pick from.

That list includes Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Alex Bowman, Tyler Reddick, and Chase Briscoe, just to name a few. But out of all the drivers who will attend the race, we’re most excited about William Byron and Stenhouse Jr. as two drivers who seem underrated at the offered NASCAR odds.

Byron is in phenomenal form, and it’s very hard to doubt his chances to come out ahead in Bristol. He has already won two races this season and has done well here last year, finishing sixth with the fifth-highest average driver rating. With strong form and a solid record on the track, Byron is definitely a man you should watch out for.

In terms of 2022 achievements, Stenhouse Jr. is the complete opposite of Byron. He has yet to win a race or come close to doing it, but he has an extensive track record on dirt races, which should give him an edge heading into the Food City Dirt Race. He finished this race second in 2021 and ran well throughout the entire day.

His lack of success in 2022 aside, Stenhouse Jr. is an excellent pick for any dirt race and is the second guy we will be backing for the 2022 Food City Dirt Race. A bet on Stenhouse Jr. to finish the race inside the top-5 is definitely something to consider, but at the offered odds, we are happy to take a smaller wager on Stenhouse Jr. to upset the field and claim his first W of the 2022 season. 

Prediction: William Byron to win

Prediction: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. to win

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