Free NBA Betting Picks and Best Bets (3/4/24)
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! To start off the first full week of March, we have a six-game NBA slate tonight. The matchups aren't great on paper aside from a couple, but as always, there's a bet we can find.
My last article here came on Thursday when I went 3-0. Orlando was able to hold Utah under their team total, Brooklyn crushed Atlanta in the first quarter, and the Spurs didn't even need the 7.5 points they were getting in the first half as they won outright. I'm on a nice 7-2 run in my last nine picks. That very well could've been 8-1 if the Warriors could've scored 12 points with over five minutes left on February 27.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:30 p.m. EST on
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NBA Betting Picks: Spreads & ML
Memphis Grizzlies (-8.5) at Brooklyn Nets (209.5 total)
I've loved myself some Brooklyn Nets in the first quarter at home this season, and I'm taking it again here. Last Thursday, the Nets crushed the Hawks 34-16 in the opening quarter. On Saturday, when the teams matched up again in Brooklyn, the Hawks won the first quarter 28-21. Brooklyn shot 7/27 (25.9%) on FGA's and 3/12 (25%) from three in the quarter. Meanwhile, the Hawks shot 50 percent on their attempts and also hit four three-pointers. It was just a bad first quarter for a Nets team that is still an NBA-best 23-8-1 ATS at home in the first quarter.
Brooklyn played in Memphis on February 26. The Nets would win 111-86, giving interim head coach Kevin Ollie his first victory. Ollie's squad jumped out to a 30-18 lead after the first quarter, and I'm hoping they can do the same tonight. TNets shot 54.2 percent on 24 FGAs in the first meeting and also knocked down four three-pointers. Memphis shot it poorly, but that's on par with how they've played in first quarters this season.
They are a bottom-five team in first quarter scoring and field goal percentage and the bottom ten in three-point percentage. The Grizzlies are second in three-pointers made per first quarter, but they also attempt the second most per game and aren't efficient. Brooklyn is holding opponents to only 7.7 attempts from deep in the opening 12 minutes at the Barclays Center.
I like how the Nets are a top-five rebounding team at home and Memphis struggles to keep opponents off the glass. In Memphis, the Nets out-rebounded the Grizzlies 13-8 in the opening quarter. Brooklyn turned three offensive rebounds into four second-chance points. This may not sound like much, but if it is a close quarter, those second-chance opportunities could come up huge and be a deciding factor. Memphis had zero offensive rebounds in the quarter. I'll back a Brooklyn team that is only a few games out of the play-in, and this should be a good matchup for them.
Witnessed a @mikal_bridges masterclass ��
— Brooklyn Nets (@BrooklynNets) March 3, 2024
The Pick: Nets First Quarter -2.5 (-120 FanDuel)
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NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads
Washington Wizards (+5.5) at Utah Jazz (237.5 total)
Similar to the Brooklyn Nets, the Utah Jazz play a lot better on their home floor. The Jazz are 19-9 ATS at home this season. I thought about taking the Jazz spread, but Washington is 19-11-2 ATS on the road, so I'll stay away from a side.
Both of these teams have struggled on defense this season, and I think there will be a lot of points in this game. Last Thursday, I took the Jazz team's total under 110.5 when they played on the road in Orlando. Utah only scored 107 against the tough Magic defense. On Saturday, they put up 120 in a defeat on the road in Miami. The Heat are in the top ten in defensive rating this season, so it was good to see the Jazz find some offensive rhythm. On the other end, they gave up 126 points in the 126-120 loss.
Utah returns home after three games on the road. In the Delta Center, the Jazz are averaging 123.2 points, 14 made three-pointers, and 25.4 free throw attempts. All those rank in the top ten among home teams. Washington is dead last in opponent road points per game. The Wizards are allowing nearly 125 points, and the Clippers just dropped 140 on them on Friday night.
I love the volume of shots teams are attempting. Washington is allowing 92.7 FGAs, and teams are hitting 50.1 percent of those attempts. This should play into the Jazz's hands, as they shoot an average of 48 percent on FGAs, but they take just under 92 attempts per game at home.
The Jazz are in the bottom six in defensive rating this season and allow 120.5 points per game. Like the Wizards, Utah allows a lot of attempts. Washington is first in the NBA in FGAs on the road, and they should have their fair share of shots. They also scored 115 points themselves on Friday night while giving up 140. If that repeats itself tonight, we go home as winners.
The Pick: Over 237.5 (-110 DraftKings)
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