Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 2/9/2023
This season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks weekday game and giving out my best bets for the contest. While we may not always favor the Bucks, using my knowledge of the team, and the NBA as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit throughout the season.
Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.
On Monday night, the Bucks stretched their win streak to 8 straight contests, as they won on the road, taking down the Portland Trail Blazers 127-108. The Bucks benefitted from balanced scoring, as Brook Lopez led the way with 27 points, Giannis Antetokounmpo posted 24, while Jrue Holiday chipped in with 20. They were able to contain Damian Lillard, en route to a dominant performance on both ends of the court.
From a betting standpoint, we had another fantastic night, going 3-0. Our massive 4 Unit bet on the Bucks (-4) cashed with ease, and Lillard finished well under 34.5 points, scoring 28. Our third bet was Brook Lopez Over 6.5 Rebounds at +120 odds, and the big man put up 9 while the Bucks as a team outrebounded Portland 55-28. This brings us up over the 10 Unit mark for the first time this season, as we inch closer to the 20 unit goal set before opening night.
Tonight, the Bucks (37-17) continue their West Coast road trip in LA, taking on the Lakers (25-30). On Tuesday night, history was made when LeBron James scored his 36th point of the game, and his 38,388th of this career, passing Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the title of all-time leading scorer in the NBA. Many people thought he would ‘wait’ to play the Bucks to take the record, but you don't become the leading NBA scorer by waiting around for points.
While it’s unbelievable to see Kareem’s record fall, the Lakers season is still a disaster. They sit 13th in the Western Conference and are looking to avoid a 3-game skid against the Bucks. Even though LeBron dropped 38 points, the Lakers still lost to the Thunder, 133-130, highlighting the defensive issues on the court. LeBron continues to deliver at a high level, averaging 30.2 PPG at 38 years old, but his supporting cast has been subpar. Anthony Davis hasn’t looked the same since returning from his foot injury, and the rest of the squad has not been consistent. Russell Westbrook has been effective coming off the bench, but the Lakers opted to trade him last night in a 3-team deal resulting in D’Angelo Russell coming to LA. While I could talk about the long term ramifications of the spiraling disaster the Lakers are becoming for hours, there’s a nationally covered game on tap for tonight, and the Lakers are becoming increasingly desperate for victories.
The Lakers have the stars to compete with the NBA’s best but lack the consistency to do so. They have been unable to string wins together, their stars have been unable to remain healthy, and they're facing a Bucks team brimming with confidence. However, the Lakers match up with the Bucks better than most teams, as they have the size and athleticism to compete on the glass. Both teams are top 5 in rebounding, so it should be a fairly even contest in that department. However, the similarities end there, as on the rest of the defensive end, the Lakers have struggled. They are a bottom half defensive team coming up against the 3rd ranked defensive unit. Considering both teams have relatively equivalent offenses (19th and 22nd), the advantage goes to Milwaukee.
Things are finally falling into place for the Bucks. Lopez and Holiday continue to step up in place of Middleton’s reduced role, Antetokounmpo has been able to remain healthy and dominant, and the rest of the supporting cast delivers night after night. They can match their 9-game win streak they started the season with if they beat the Lakers tonight, but I’m not so sure everything will go to plan. The spread is set at 8 points in favor of the Bucks, and I’m gonna go out on a limb and take the free points with the home team.
The Bucks are 14-12 on the road, while the Lakers are 13-13 at home, and I expect a bounce back performance from Davis and a rejuvenated Lakers squad. Over the last few weeks, LeBron’s chase for the points record has dominated the LA headlines, and now that it’s behind them, they can start focusing on winning basketball games again. Even though the Lakers are in 13th place, they are just 2 games out of 10th place, and are 4.5 games back of the 4th place Mavericks. A very crowded Western Conference allows the Lakers to quickly make up ground if they can start amassing wins.
This leads me into the first bet of the night, which will be the LA Lakers (+8). I know the Bucks have been playing great basketball, but every win streak will come to an end, and I expect a hard fought game tonight. I’m not saying tonight will necessarily be the night the Bucks lose, but the Lakers are more than talented enough, and have the motivation, to keep this close.
The second bet for the night is Brook Lopez Over 12.5 Points. The big man doesn’t get the credit he deserves for where this Bucks team is and should easily surpass this mark. He’s averaging 14.3 PPG, and we’re benefiting from his recent slump with this line. However, despite missing the mark in 3 straight games prior to Monday, he scored 27 points, and I expect another solid performance from him tonight.
Pick: LA Lakers (+6.5) 2 Units
Pick: Brook Lopez Over 12.5 Points 2 Units
2022-23 Season Record:
ML Record: 8-9
Spread Record: 10-9
Total Record: 6-8
Player Props Record: 22-15
Total: 46-43
Up 13.5 Units ($1350)
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