Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 3/13/2023
This season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks weekday game and giving out my best bets for the contest. While we may not always favor the Bucks, using my knowledge of the team, and the NBA as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit throughout the season.
Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.
On Thursday night, the Bucks defeated a weakened Brooklyn Nets side 118-113, led by a monster performance from Brook Lopez. The big man had 24 points, 10 rebounds, and a career high 9 blocks. Giannis Antetokounmpo remained out with a hand injury, but the Bucks continue to pick up valuable wins without him.
From a betting perspective, we had another solid night. Brook Lopez’s double-double easily cashed our 3 Unit Over 5.5 Rebounds play, and the total fell one point short of 232, costing us 1 Unit. Another profitable night in the books.
On Saturday night, the Bucks put on a show in an overtime thriller against the Golden State Warriors, but Steph Curry’s 36 points were enough for the Warriors to edge out a 125-116 win. The Bucks are still 1.5 games ahead of the Celtics, and the final 15 games of the season will be crucial to determining playoff positioning.
Tonight, the Bucks (48-19) head over to Sacramento to take on the Kings (40-26). The Kings are on the cusp of snapping a 16-season playoff drought, which is the longest active streak in professional sports. They sit in joint second place in the Western Conference and will have their eyes set on a top 3 finish come the season’s end. De’Aaron Fox leads the way with 25.4 PPG, but the Kings scoring depth has been the real difference maker for them this season. They are first in league with 121.2 PPG and are shooting a sparkling 50.0% from the field. While their defensive liabilities often lead to high-scoring, back-and-forth contests, they’ve been able to outscore their issues and continue to put wins on the board.
Unfortunately for the Kings, they face a tough matchup against the 2021 NBA champions, and are coming in as slight underdogs despite the game tipping off on their home court. While the home court certainly favors the Kings, they are just 21-13 at home, while the Bucks are 20-13 on the road. The Kings are an average home team, and it has been their road wins that have launched them up the standings. The Bucks have managed to put road wins on the board despite the revolving door of injuries to their starting lineup, and a relatively healthy Bucks team will be licking their lips to improve their league best road record.
The real issue with the Kings is their rebounding. They’re ranked 22nd in the league compared to the Bucks 1st place ranking and will be at a serious disadvantage on the glass. Domantas Sabonis will do his best to box out Lopez, Antetokounmpo, and Bobby Portis. However, considering the Bucks often run lineups with 2 big men at a time, I don’t see 6-foot-8 Harrison Barnes being able to effectively cover the weak side. The second chance points will pile up for the Bucks. And while the Bucks may not be the most effective team from behind the arc, they take the 4th most 3 pointers and there will be plenty of long rebounds for hungry Bucks rebounders.
In this matchup, a potent Kings attack will be facing off against a lockdown Bucks defense, and I expect the two to cancel each other out. The Bucks will let in more points than they are used to, but the Kings will still struggle to match their usual offensive output. The outcome of this contest will likely be determined by the Bucks offense against the Kings defense, and I have no choice but to side with the road team. Antetokounmpo is expected to return from his hand injury. And now that the Bucks have reliable scoring depth at the guard position, there is no team that can step in front of Milwaukee. The Kings have had a fantastic season thus far, and a loss to the Bucks shouldn’t affect their postseason trajectory.
For the first bet of the night, I’ll be staying away from the spread and laying 4 Units on Bucks Moneyline at -130 odds. There are simply too many advantages in the Bucks favor, and they are one of the worst matchups for an electric Kings squad. Sacramento can always heat up in a hurry with their efficient offense, but they’ll find themselves shooting tough shots late in the shot clock, and there will be no second chances on the glass.
The second bet of the night is De’Aaron Fox Over 6.5 Assists at +100 for 1 Unit. Fox will find Jrue Holiday guarding him for a majority of the night and will need to get the ball out of his hands if the Kings are to find success. This is a line he’s surpassed in 5 of his last 6 games, and he should be able to move the rock effectively at home tonight.
Pick: Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline -130 4 Units
Pick: De’Aaron Fox Over 6.5 Assists +100 1 Unit
2022-23 Season Record:
ML Record: 10-9
Spread Record: 12-11
Total Record: 6-10
Player Props Record: 24-19
Total: 52-51
Up 10.7 Units ($1070)
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