Milwaukee Bucks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Predictions, Player Props & Odds (Feb. 23)

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23 February 2024

Milwaukee Bucks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Predictions, Player Props & Odds (Feb. 23)

Two teams headed in opposite directions clash on Friday night as the Milwaukee Bucks (35-21, 12-14 away, 21-34-1 ATS) face the Minnesota Timberwolves (39-16, 19-5 home, 29-24-2 ATS) at the Target Center in Minneapolis at 9:10pm CT/10:10 pm ET.

Minnesota, which is a Western Conference-best 19-5 at home, are 3.5-point favorites in Friday’s Bucks vs Timberwolves odds.

Bucks vs Timberwolves odds

The Timberwolves are also -175 on the moneyline to add to their four-game win streak, while the Bucks are +145 road underdogs to snap their two-game skid. The game total is at 225.5 in Friday’s NBA odds.

Odds as of Feb. 23 at BetMGM. New users can claim a BetMGM sign up promo to get $150 in bonus bets.

Thanks to five losses in their past seven games, the Bucks have fallen two games back of Cleveland for second in the East portion of the NBA playoff bracket. The Timberwolves’ current four-game win streak has vaulted them back to the top of the West, one game up on OKC.

Milwaukee Struggles Entering All-Star Break

The Bucks entered the All-Star break losing two in a row, five of seven, and seven of ten. Their last two games were particularly concerning. After getting demolished 123-97 at home by Miami on Feb. 13 , they fell 113-110 at depleted Memphis on Feb. 15 as 14.5-point favorites.

The Bucks were also obliterated (129-105) by Minnesota at home on Feb. 8, with Giannis Antetokounmpo held to just 17 points in 27 minutes. The T-Wolves had their way with Milwaukee on the glass (43-34 edge in rebounding) and in the post (46-38 points in the paint), while also hitting at a phenomenal 51.2% clip from three (21 of 41).

The poor defensive performance has become something of a habit for the Bucks in their first year with Damian Lillard. They sit just 17th in Defensive Rating after finishing fourth last year.

Outside of this most-recent stretch, their offense has been excellent and they still sit fifth in O-Rating, but their recent slump has dropped them out of the top ten in Net Rating (+3.1, 11th).

T-Wolves Dominant Entering All-Star Break

Minnesota won four in a row before the break, covering all four against the spread as well. While their two most-recent wins over lowly Portland won’t turn any heads (121-109 and 128-91, both on the road), the two prior certainly will. After routing the Bucks 129-105 in Milwaukee on Feb. 8. the T-Wolves followed-up with a 121-100 win at the LA Clippers on Feb. 12 as 4.5-point road underdogs.

As they so often do, the mammoth Minnesota lineup dominated the glass (41-36 edge in rebounding) and the paint (62-42 points in the paint).

Minnesota continues to lead the league in D-Rating, and by a considerable margin. At 108.2, the T-Wolves are 2.4 ahead of the next-best defensive teams (Boston and Cleveland). While their O-Rating is only 17th (115.2), they still sit third in Net Rating (+7.0) thanks to their stifling defense.

Center Rudy Gobert has a massive lead in the NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds, an honor he’s already won three times.

MIL vs MIN Player Props

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Anthony Edwards and Giannis Antetokounmpo are tied for the highest point total of the night at 27.5, while Damian Lillard (24.5) and Karl-Anthony Towns (21.5) are also over 20. Both Rudy Gobert (12.5) and Giannis (11.5) have double-digit rebound totals in Friday’s NBA player props.

Bucks vs Timberwolves Prediction

It’s possible that the immensely-talented Bucks come out of the All-Star break rejuvenated and cohesive. But that’s not the team I watched head into the hiatus, and Milwaukee has to restart its campaign in what’s become one of the hardest places to play this season.

Minnesota’s defense is absolutely smothering when the team is at full strength (which it is tonight) and that’s terrible news for a Bucks group that’s averaged just 108.2 PPG over its last seven games. I fully expect the Timberwolves to continue their dominant play against a Milwaukee team that still hasn’t fit all its puzzle pieces together.

MIL vs MIN pick: Minnesota -3.5 (-115)