Bucks vs. Heat NBA Playoffs Game 4 Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets

Bam Adebayo’s Miami Heat (44-38) will look to secure an upset of Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks (58-24) on April 24, 2023. The Bucks are a 5.5-point favorite. A 217.5-point total has been set for the game.

Bucks vs. Heat Odds

• Bucks odds to win: -231
• Heat odds to win: +190
• Spread: Bucks (-5.5)
• Total: 217.5

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Game Time and Information

• When: Monday, April 24, 2023 at 7:30 PM ET
• Where: FTX Arena in Miami, Florida
• TV: TNT, BSSUN, and BSWI

Who Will Win Bucks vs. Heat?

Bucks and Heat Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

In games this season they were favored by 5.5 points or more, the Bucks have a 22-17-2 record against the spread.

The Heat are 4-6 against the spread when an underdog by 5.5 points or more this season.

The Bucks and the Heat combine to average 8.9 more points per game than the total of 217.5 set for this matchup.

Opponents of these teams have averaged a combined 223.1 points per game, 5.6 more than the point total in this matchup.

The Bucks’ average point total in matchups this season is 230.2, 12.7 points higher than the over/under in this game.

The average point total for Miami this year is 1.8 points higher than this game’s over/under.

Milwaukee is 42-35-5 ATS this season.

So far this season, the Heat have compiled a 30-48-4 record against the spread.

Bucks Stats & Insights

The Bucks have a +298 scoring differential, topping opponents by 3.6 points per game. They’re putting up 116.9 points per game to rank eighth in the league and are allowing 113.3 per outing to rank 14th in the NBA.

The 48.6 rebounds per game the Bucks average rank first in the NBA, and are 4.4 more than the 44.2 their opponents pull down per outing.

Milwaukee connects on 14.8 three-pointers per game (fourth-most in the league) at a 36.8% rate (10th in the NBA), compared to the 12.1 per game its opponents make at a 35.4% rate.

The Bucks record 114.1 points per 100 possessions (ninth in the league), while giving up 109.4 points per 100 possessions (fourth in the NBA).

The Bucks have been better offensively at home, where they average 118.8 points per game, compared to on the road, where they record 115 per game. Defensively, they are better at home, where they give up 112.5 points per game, versus on the road, where they allow opponents to score 114.1 per game.

Heat Stats & Insights

The Heat score 109.5 points per game (30th in NBA) and allow 109.8 (second in league) for a -26 scoring differential overall.

Miami grabs 40.6 rebounds per game (27th in league) while conceding 41.9 per contest to opponents. It is outrebounded by 1.3 boards per game.

The Heat connect on 12 three-pointers per game (16th in the league), 1.1 fewer than their opponents.

The Heat rank 25th in the league averaging 110.4 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively are ninth, allowing 110.6 points per 100 possessions.

Miami averages 111.4 points per game at home, and 107.5 on the road.

Bucks Key Players to Watch

Antetokounmpo averages 31.1 points, 11.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game.

Jrue Holiday’s averages this season are 19.3 points, 5.1 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game.

The Bucks get 2.4 three-pointers per game out of Holiday.

Holiday averages 1.2 takeaways per game, while Brook Lopez records 2.5 rejections per contest.

Heat Key Players to Watch

Adebayo holds the top Heat spot in two categories among active players: scoring (20.4 points per game) and rebounding (9.2 rebounds per game). He also dishes out 3.2 assists per contest.

Jimmy Butler’s per-game averages this season are 22.9 points, 5.3 assists and 5.9 rebounds.

Max Strus knocks down 2.5 threes per game.

Butler’s 1.8 steals and Adebayo’s 0.8 blocks per game are vital to the Heat’s defensive production.

• Pick ATS: Heat (+ 5.5)
• Pick OU:

  Over (217.5)
  

• Prediction:
  Bucks 113 – Heat 112