Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 11/30/2023
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On Tuesday night, the New York Knicks took down the Charlotte Hornets 115-91, securing their spot in the Quarter Finals of the in-season tournament with their wide victory. Julius Randle led the way with a 25-point, 20-rebound showing, and the Knicks needed every point to earn the tiebreaker against the fellow 3-1 teams.
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From a betting perspective, it was one of our best nights of the season. We laid a sizable 5 units on the Knicks to win and cover the 12 point spread and took it one step further by taking the Knicks (-20) at +300 odds. We recognized the unique dynamics of this game, where point differential held significant weight, unlike typical NBA matchups, and it allowed us to capitalize on the situation. In a standard regular season game, teams with a double-digit lead will take their foot off the gas late in the 4th quarter, allowing for a possible back door cover. However, the Knicks needed every point to qualify for the knockout stages, and the bookies failed to properly adjust the lines on large spreads to compensate.
Tonight, we are back to regular season action as the New York Knicks (10-7) welcome the struggling Detroit Pistons (2-16) to Madison Square Garden. The Knicks will need to be wary about taking this game easily, as while the Pistons may be the worst team in the league, they are still filled with talented NBA stars, who will not roll over easily on a nightly basis. After the highs of the in-season tournament, New York cannot afford to drop winnable regular season games due to a lack of effort.
The Pistons started the season 2-1 but have since lost 15 straight games, having not won a game in over a month. They were able to keep a few of the games close, but 12 of the 15 losses have come by 8 or more points, and 4 of the last 5 have been by 19+ points. Admittedly, the already weak Pistons lineup has been struggling with injuries, as Bojan Bogdanovich and Monte Morris have yet to suit up this season, and Joe Harris has already missed significant time. They are missing the veteran presence needed to guide these young guns, as currently, their entire starting lineup is 22 or younger. The development will continue, but unless the experienced players get back into action, the Pistons will continue to struggle with putting wins on the board.
The Knicks will be eager to flex their defensive muscles at home tonight and keep the Pistons to double digit scoring. It’s as if Tom Thibodeau has made that the standard for the New York Knicks defense, and the 4th ranked unit coming up against the 27th ranked offense will create quite the mismatch.
One of New York’s biggest strengths is rebounding, but the Pistons aren’t too far behind the Knicks as both teams rank in the top 5 in the league. Last night, the Pistons took 9 extra shots against the Lakers, yet still lost by 26 points. Detroit benefits from extra possessions to keep them in games. And while one of the Knicks biggest strengths is also neutralized, it will hurt the Pistons much more than New York.
The Knicks were carried by Jalen Brunson’s excellent play in the early weeks of the season, but now that Randle has regained his form, the Knicks are truly one of the best teams in the league. Randle failed to score 20+ points in each of the first 6 games this year but has since scored 20+ in 10 of the last 11. After his offseason surgery, he clearly needed some time to shake off the rust, and New York is now reaping the rewards. Randle and Mitchell Robinson’s presence on the glass has created quite the duo in the paint for the opposition to defend. And as long as the Knicks continue to dominate the rebounds, and play solid defense, there is no reason they can’t be competitive on a nightly basis.
This matchup feels borderline unfair. The Pistons are playing the second night of a back to back and had to travel to New York today. After getting spanked by the Lakers last night, Detroit will not be feeling very confident they can snap their 15-game losing streak in New York, and this game could quickly get out of control. New York’s poor shooting is mitigated by all the extra possessions they get by not turning the ball over frequently, and I fail to imagine the Pistons keeping pace. The first bet of the evening will be on New York to cover the massive 13.5-point spread, as they’ve done in 3 of their last 4 victories. Detroit’s young team will always be vying for the backdoor cover, but New York’s superior defense will ensure once they get a big lead, they keep it.
The second bet of the night will be on Under 218.5 points. Despite this being a low total for the modern NBA, the Knicks are due for a letdown game against weaker opposition. And while I trust their defense to turn up, their offense could start the game quite lackluster. New York should be able to keep Detroit under 100 points, and expecting New York to score 120+ in a blowout contest is a tall task. The Knicks play at the second slowest pace in the league, and plenty of lengthy empty possessions will keep this game Under. They have the perimeter defense to prevent easy 3 point makes, and the interior defense to limit the easy baskets from under the hoop. Between Detroit’s tired legs and the Knicks expected offensive complacency, this total will stay well out of reach.
Pick: New York Knicks (-13.5) 1 Unit
Pick: Knicks vs Pistons Under 218.5 3 Units
2023-24 Season record:
ML Record: 4-2
Spread Record: 6-3
Total Record: 2-3
Player Props Record: 5-11
Total: 17-19
Down 2.6 Units
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