Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 12/18/2023
You have found the right place to fulfill all your New York Knicks betting needs. At Doc’s Sports, I’ll be dissecting every New York Knicks regular season contest, providing my best bets along the way. Using my knowledge of the Knicks, and the league as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit by the season’s end.
In Friday night’s showdown, the Knicks took down the Phoenix Suns 139-122, on the back of a career high 50 points from Jalen Brunson. He went a perfect 9/9 from deep, snapping a 3-game road losing streak for New York.
From a betting perspective, we had another solid night. We hammered Jusuf Nurkic Over 10.5 Rebounds after correctly identifying the impact Bradley Beal’s presence on the court had on the big man's boards. In the first half, Nurkic hauled in 10 rebounds, to pick up the slack from lackluster effort from Beal. Then when Beal exited the game in the second half, he grabbed just 2 more boards. We took a shot on the Suns spread, but Brunson’s uber-efficient shooting night ensured the Knicks walked away with a win, regardless of another night of poor defensive play.
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On Saturday night, the Knicks fell to the Clippers 144-122 after Kawhi Leonard and Paul George scored 36 and 25 points, respectively. Their defense let them down once again, and the extended absence of Mitchell Robinson could not be playing a bigger role in New York’s success.
Concerns surrounding the Knicks defense are mounting. After allowing 120 or fewer points in each of the first 19 games of the season, they’ve allowed over that threshold in 5 of their last 6, including 146 against the Bucks, 144 against the Clippers, 133 against the Celtics, and even 130 against a woeful Raptors offense. Obviously, the defensive reputation Tom Thibodeau has instilled in his troops goes much deeper than just Robinson. However, it’s a very unlikely coincidence that since he’s been in the infirmary, their defense has fallen off a cliff.
Tonight, the Knicks (14-11) wrap up their West Coast road trip with another trip to Crypto.com Arena, this time to take on LeBron James and the Lakers (15-11). The Lakers managed to go 7-0 in the in-season tournament contests en route to the inaugural championship but have gone just 9-11 in other regular season games. It is abundantly clear the Lakers have what it takes to challenge for an NBA championship, but a lack of effort in ‘meaningless’ regular season contests have seen them drop very winnable matchups. They have an elite defense. However, outside of James and Anthony Davis, their offense is among the worst in the league. Fortunately for them, they are taking on the Knicks at the perfect time, as they will be able to trust their defense to shut down Brunson and Julius Randle, while taking advantage of a suddenly generous Knicks defensive unit.
The Lakers have all the tools needed to win, but they’ve struggled to put it together on a nightly basis. James and Davis provide plenty of veteran leadership, while still being very effective on the court, and the Lakers have the young guns surrounding them who are poised for breakout years. While D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, and Rui Hachimura are solid NBA stars, the fate of this franchise rests on James and Davis. As I’m sure you’re aware, James turns 39 before the end of 2023, shattering every expectation we had surrounding longevity in the NBA. He’s 16th in the league in PPG, and 9th in Assists, further emphasizing the impact he has on the offensive end. He can rain down three’s like never before in his career. And what he lacks in youthful explosivity, he’s made up for with his incredible basketball IQ, and improved shot making in recent seasons.
For Davis, his 12.5 Rebounds per game leads the league, and it’s almost frightening to imagine him going up against Isiah Hartenstien in the paint. Davis has been bullying quality opposition all season long. And without Robinson, the Knicks will seriously struggle to haul in rebounds on a consistent basis. Davis can score from under the basket, hit his mid-range shots, and his 2.6 Blocks per game will ensure there are no easy scores going the other way.
As much as I’d like to say I expect the Knicks to right the ship, the impact Robinson’s absence has had on the defensive end cannot be overstated, and they will once again fall short in LA. The Lakers are just 4-point home favorites. And on the tail end of a grueling West Coast road trip, the Knicks will not have enough gas left in the tank to keep this one close. Rebounding and defense is what has allowed the Knicks to remain near the top of the East for the last few years, and they’ve completely lost that identity, relying on Brunson or Randle to take trunks putting the team on their back to pick up victories. Davis will dominate inside, forcing Randle to drop deeper to help Hartenstien with his assignment. The increased spacing that will allow the Lakers on offense will lead to plenty of open looks, and the 4th best shooting team in the league will not need a second invitation to knock down open shots. New York will need another 40+ point night from one of their stars to keep this close, and I’d much rather bank on them having an average offensive night, while tanking on the defensive end. The first bet of the evening will be Lakers (-4), and we will also be sprinkling on the Lakers to win by double digits, at +180 odds.
The next bet for tonight will be Randle’s points. After getting off to a horrendous start to the season, Randle has scored 20+ in his last 10 games, and 18 of his last 19. He has no fear taking, and making tough jump shots, and the occasional lack of effort on defense from James will be enough for him to eclipse his line of 22.5 points. He’s attempted 15+ field goals in his last 10 games, and when he does so again, he’ll have a great chance of cashing this generous line. Randle’s overall PPG of 22.4 is still being dragged down from his poor start to the campaign, and I’d have this line a lot closer to 25 then 20. At this price, while I don’t think it will be enough to get the win or cover, Randle will ensure he’s doing his part on the offensive end.
Pick: LA Lakers (-4) 3 Units
Pick: LA Lakers (-9.5) +180 1 Unit
Pick: Julius Randle Over 22.5 Points -120 1 Unit
2023-24 Season record:
ML Record: 4-3
Spread Record: 8-6
Total Record: 3-5
Player Props Record: 8-14
Total: 23-28
Down 5.2 Units
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