Friday Forecheck: Building Confidence
Before the Philadelphia Flyers began their current seven-game point streak (5-0-2) over the final six games of a seven-game homestand and Thursday night's game in Ottawa, the Flyers were in 28th-place in the NHL
Before the Philadelphia Flyers began their current seven-game point streak (5-0-2) over the final six games of a seven-game homestand and Thursday night's game in Ottawa, the Flyers were in 28th-place in the NHL: fifth from the bottom. They were one standings point behind the 27th-place Montreal Canadiens but the Flyers had played two fewer games up to that point.
Since then, the Flyers have collected 12 of 14 possible standings points. Through the NHL games of Thursday night, the Flyers are in 26th place: seventh from the bottom.
From an NHL Draft Lottery odds standpoint, the difference between finishing 5th from the bottom (8.5 percent chance of winning the lottery for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 Entry Draft) and being 7th from the bottom (6.5 percent chance) is a whopping two percent.
It is still mathematically possible for the Flyers (71 points, eight games remaining) to surpass the Vancouver Canucks (74 points, eight games remaining) for 25th place (6.0 percent Draft Lottery odds) or for Philly to drop below Arizona (67 points seven games remaining) into 27th place (7.5 percent Lottery odds). However, the likeliest scenario is for the Flyers to stay right where they are now,
Some thoughts:
1. I'm not going to discount the fact that even slightly higher Draft Lottery odds holds intrigue where the potential to draft Connor Bedard or Adam Fantilli is involved.
2. However, the trade-off for the slightly lesser Lottery odds is this: Young players on the Flyers' current NHL roster have been stepping up and building confidence. That's what has been going on with the Flyers, not just in the month of March but on a gradual but progressive basis for much of the season.
Teams and players cannot carry momentum from one season to the next. What they CAN carry, though, is bolstered confidence. With players such as Owen Tippett, Noah Cates, Morgan Frost and Cam York, there's no longer a question of whether they are bonafide NHL players. The question is whether they can take their games up a notch further come next year and beyond.
All of these players have trended the right way as the 2022-23 season has progressed. Is that worth roughly a two percent difference in Draft Lottery odds? You may disagree but, to me, the answer is yes.
3. Hockey is a team sport, not an individual one. A team with a single superstar (or even one dynamic line) but little else around him isn't likely to see dramatically improved results until they build a viable team around him.
4. There is a very good crop of prospects available at the top end of the 2023 Entry Draft. There will be additional future NHL impact players beyond Bedard and Fantilli. As with every Draft, the comparative long-term impact of individuals members of the Draft crop is absolutely not preordained to play out by the selection order. Whether the Flyers select at No. 7, 8 or 9, there should be a very good player there for the taking. There's just a little more projection and guesswork involved in predicting the players' development trajectory.
A little more patience may be in order in some cases. In the specific case of mega-talented Russian winger Matvei Michkov (a player with potentially elite pure ability but who is locked into a KHL contract until 2026), the prospect could be off the board by the third or fourth pick or could drop to the Flyers' pre-Lottery range. If not Michkov, there are still quite a few other prospects with top-end potential if they develop as anticipated.
5. The rest of the Flyers' schedule is no cakewalk. Five of the remaining eight games are on the road. Additionally, the April schedule is extremely compacted over 13 nights. The month starts out with a 3-in-4 against Buffalo (home), Pittsburgh (road) and St. Louis (road). After that, the Flyers play Dallas (road), the New York Islanders (road) and the President's Trophy winning Boston Bruins (home) in another set of three games within four nights. Finally, the schedule concludes against Columbus (home) and Chicago (away).
6. Felix Sandström played admirably in Thursday's game in Ottawa. Make no mistake, however: the Flyers are a different team when No. 1 starter Carter Hart (lower-body injury) is available. Sam Ersson is a good prospect in his own right, and may have to split time between the AHL's Lehigh Valley Phantoms and the parent team is Hart's current absence is prolonged. The Flyers' odds of continuing their recent winning ways start to suffer the longer Hart is out.
