Fritz vs. Shapovalov Miami Open picks and odds: Fade Canadian in tough matchup

Denis Shapovalov faces Taylor Fritz in the third round of the Miami Open.

The pregame narrative: Shapovalov won his first match at this tournament, but we’re very skeptical he follows it up with another victory. Fritz is playing some solid tennis, which is more than we can say about the Canadian.

Tennis odds as of 3:19 p.m. on 03/25/2023.

Fritz vs. Shapovalov Miami Open picks

Best Bet: Fritz -1.5 (+107)

Shapovalov is advancing at a tournament for just the second time since the Australian Open, but we’re not expecting his run to last any longer.

It’s in part due to his opponent, and largely because of his own play. Shapovalov’s greatest opponent on the court these days is himself. Facing off against Guido Pella, he continually beat himself. He fired off 13 double faults and 29 unforced errors against the No. 581 player in the world.

This is a recurring theme for him, as these issues were the main culprit in his loss to Ugo Humbert at Indian Wells. His 14 double faults and 29 unforced errors sent him packing early in the first leg of the Sunshine Double.

This type of performance won’t fly against Fritz, who’s playing some excellent tennis. The American is 11-2 in his last 13 matches, earning a tourney win at Del Ray Beach during this stretch.

Key stat: Fritz defeated Shapovalov in two sets earlier this month at the Mexican Open.

Quick picks

Fritz -3.5 games (-104): We’re also fine with taking Fritz to cover the game spread. In their latest meeting on March 1, Fritz won the match 6-4, 6-4, successfully covering this number.

Shapovalov struggled to do much as a returner against Pella, winning just three of 13 return games against the Argentine. Fritz’s dominant serve was in full force against Emilio Nava, taking eight of nine service games.

Shapovalov’s inability to find success in the return game and his inaccurate serve are two major knocks against him in this matchup.

Under 22.5 games (-108): It didn’t take Fritz very long to dispose of Shapovalov at the Mexican Open, doing so in 20 games. Additionally, the under on this total has come through in four of their seven non-Grand Slam meetings.

With Fritz an impressive 18-5 on the hard court this year and Shapovalov an underwhelming 6-6, we’re anticipating this to be a one-sided rout.