Frogs Odds: College Basketball Futures
The road to the Final Four begins in just 10 days, with the 2023-24 college basketball season tipping off on Monday November 6, including the TCU Horned Frogs season opener in Schollmaier Arena vs. the Southern Jaguars. Coming off consecutive trips to the NCAA Tournament Round of 32, adding a top 5 transfer class and two high-level freshmen to a returning roster led by Preseason All Big 12 froward Emanuel Miller, where does the marketplace view TCU in the national picture and in a stacked Big 12?
Big 12 Champion
During the 11 seasons in the 10-team Big 12 conference, the TCU Horned Frogs never finished the regular season higher than fifth in the league standings (2018, 2022, 2023) and never finishing above .500 in Big 12 play. The Horned Frogs were selected by the league’s head coaches to finish fifth in the regular season and the oddsmakers agree, placing TCU with the fifth-best odds to win the Big 12 Regular Season at +1000. In the 27 seasons that the Big 12 has existed, the Kansas Jayhawks have won or shared the league’s regular season crown 21 times and Bill Self’s squad is again the favorite to lead the way in 2024, at +200 to win the conference. While every Big 12 schedule is a gauntlet, KU gets home-and-homes with Baylor, Houston, and K-State, plus a home-only game vs. TCU, giving the Jayhawks every opportunity to keep the other top contenders at bay.
Final Four
TCU has never won multiple NCAA Tournament games, so the likelihood of winning four consecutive games against tournament-caliber teams to reach the Final Four seems like a very tall task. The Horned Frogs have the 24th best odds to reach the Final Four at +1200. I actually would find it more likely that the Frogs runs into some opponent luck in the Tourney and finds some magic to run through March Madness than it finds itself standing atop the Big 12 at the end of that gauntlet, but the oddsmakers make it a longer shot here. Winning the National Championship is a much more challenging proposition, as then you need to win two more games against Final Four-caliber teams - many teams make Cinderella runs into the Final Four, but very rarely have those teams ever emerged as champions. TCU is +4500 to see Jamie Dixon lift the trophy in Phoenix, AZ at State Farm Stadium on April 8, 2024 just as Sonny Dykes did in the same venue after the Fiesta Bowl on December 31, 2022.
