Key the lone speed in BC Juvenile-Juvenile Turf double

Picking the lone speed often works in horse betting on any surface, and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf on Friday at Santa Anita contains one true pacesetter who cuts back in distance after winning his most recent start.

As long as this expected leader sets moderate to slow fractions while loose, he can beat the trio of Europeans, including the classy River Tiber.

My Boy Prince is such a speed horse, and he works as the key in a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Juvenile Turf double, with two selections in the former race connecting to the keyed horse. Also included are alternative exactas.

Santa Anita Race 8: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

Locked won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland by only 3/4 of a length over The Wine Steward. But the small margin might end up as a blessing in disguise for those planning to bet the 2-year-old son of Gun Runner, as his odds of 7-2 make him only a mild favorite in this spot.

In the Breeders’ Futurity, Locked had a good excuse to not dominate when he went four or five wide on the first turn and four wide on the far turn.

The Wine Steward drew the rail in that race and ended up saving ground on the first turn and initially on the far turn before splitting horses to gain the lead. Locked then met The Wine Steward at the top of the stretch in a head-to-head battle and began to edge clear late to prevail by the short margin.

Besides Locked, Timberlake also can move forward after capturing the one-turn Champagne Stakes (G1) over the slop at Aqueduct by 4 1/4 lengths. General Partner held second after setting the pace. Prior to the Champagne, General Partner broke his maiden by four lengths at Saratoga with a 110 on TimeformUS.

Timberlake also ran second in the Hopeful Stakes (G1) in early September at Saratoga. In that race, he came into the far turn and early stretch with nowhere to go, which ended up killing his momentum even when it did clear up. Timberlake deserves a pass for finishing second. 

Both Locked and Timberlake will end up hard to beat with good trips.

Juvenile–Juvenile Turf Double: 4,6 with 5

Santa Anita Race 9: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

My Boy Prince has wanted the lead in every one of his races, and that type of style will serve him well in this paceless race on paper.  

For example, My Boy Prince made use of his early speed to set the pace under pressure in the one-mile Summer Stakes (G1) on Sept. 16 at Woodbine. Even though the closer Carson's Run passed him from the outside, My Boy Prince ran on well enough late to finish second by 2 1/4 lengths.

One month later, My Boy Prince took a step down in company and went against Canadian-breds in the Cup and Saucer Stakes at Woodbine while stretching out slightly to 1 1/16 miles. My Boy Prince took an uncontested lead this time around through slow fractions of 24.34, 49.08 and 1:13.88 before coming home strong to romp by 4 1/4 lengths.

Visually, My Boy Prince gave the impression he had plenty left.

Granted, My Boy Prince won against weaker opponents in the Cup and Saucer while setting the pace under no pressure. But even if he did enjoy an easy trip, My Boy Prince might receive moderate to slow fractions while uncontested again in the Juvenile Turf with no other pacesetters around.

The leading European in this race, River Tiber, brings his overseas class after finishing third in both the Prix Morny (G1) at Deauville and Middle Park Stakes (G1) at Newmarket. River Tiber might use his tactical speed to sit close to the leader. But he likely will not duel My Boy Prince. 

Stay Hot also brings tactical speed after breaking his maiden locally with stalking tactics on Oct. 7. Trainer Peter Eurton must think highly of this Summer Front colt to start him in the Breeders’ Cup off that initial win.

In any case, My Boy Prince has a real chance to put this field to sleep while setting the pace under Joel Rosario. Because of his speed and expected value, he offers bettors an attractive option to score on Breeders' Cup Day 1. 

River Tiber and Stay Hot remain useful for exacta and trifecta players. 

Besides the listed double above, another idea is to play River Tiber and Stay Hot in second underneath My Boy Prince as part of two separate exactas, with the My Boy Prince-Stay Hot exacta played for less money because of the long odds on Stay Hot.  

Win: 5, at 5-1 or higher

Exacta: 5 over 2

Exacta: 5 over 6, for less money