Gator Bowl Betting Odds, Spreads & Picks 2023

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28 December 2023

Gator Bowl Betting Odds, Spreads & Picks 2023

It was a disappointing season for both Kentucky and Clemson, but there's no better way to make up for that than with a bowl win. Unfortunately for Wildcats' backers, our college football picks don't expect QB Devin Leary to have much fun Friday.

The TaxSlayer Gator Bowl will feature two teams hoping to end disappointing seasons on a high note, as the Clemson Tigers square off with the Kentucky Wildcats. College football odds have the Tigers favored, despite a mass exodus of talent.

Dabo Swinney’s team finished 8-4 and went just 4-4 in ACC play, but ended the season on a four-game win streak. Cade Klubnik was in the preseason Heisman conversation, but he was inconsistent for much of the season. Now he'll take the field without receiver Beaux Collins, just one of a host of Tigers who have opted out or transferred before the bowl game.

Kentucky came into the season hoping to challenge for second place in the SEC East but followed up a 5-0 start by losing five of its next six.

My free college football picks for Clemson vs Kentucky break down the matchup to help you find the right betting angles for this bowl game on December 29.

Clemson vs Kentucky best odds

Clemson vs Kentucky picks and predictions

Clemson’s roster has endured a laundry list of defections, but perhaps no unit has been impacted more than the secondary. Four defensive backs have either opted out, transferred, or are injured.

But this defense still has plenty of weapons, and more than enough depth to cause problems for Kentucky quarterback Devin Leary. That’s why I'm taking the Under on his passing yards for my best bet. Set at 200.5 yards, Leary’s projected total is a number he’s reached just twice in the Wildcats' final eight games of the season.

That’s not all his fault, mind you. His receivers led the nation in drops this season, despite being quite heralded coming into the campaign. But he must also shoulder quite a bit of the blame, as he had inconsistent performances.

Leary threw for 372 yards against Tennessee and 206 yards in the season-ending win over Louisville, but those were the outliers. They also came in situations that aren’t likely to be repeated.

The Vols ranked 80th in college football in opposing QBR, and he never came close to replicating that performance. Louisville also helped Leary’s passing total by leaving tight end Izayah Cummings wide open for a 55-yard catch-and-run.

A better representation would be to look at his performances against Georgia and Alabama, who like Clemson, rank in the Top 20 defenses in QBR. He completed just 10 of 26 attempts against Georgia and threw for 158 yards on 17 completions against the Tide.

Clemson’s pass defense this season was elite. The Tigers ranked second in EPA per pass play, second in success rate, and first in EPA per game against the pass. They also ranked fifth overall in EPA per play.

Kentucky running back Ray Davis is participating in the bowl game, and it’s likely the coaching staff tries to establish him early and often to set up the play-action pass. If successful, he'll limit Leary’s attempts. If the Wildcats can’t get the run game going, then Leary will somehow need to find success against a secondary that is still quite talented.

Leary faced Clemson three times while at NC State and threw for a combined 649 yards on 120 pass attempts. Last season, he needed 47 attempts to get to 245 passing yards.

He’s not going to throw that many times, and Clemson’s defense is as tough as any he’s faced this season. Leary’s passing total continues to creep upwards, and that is an overreaction to the Tigers' absences without taking his weaknesses into account.

Bank on Leary to fail to reach 200 passing yards, with DraftKings offering the best price at -115, and take advantage of a line moving in the wrong direction.

My best bet: Devin Leary Under 200.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Clemson vs Kentucky same-game parlay

Leary Under 194.5 passing yards

Kentucky team total Under 21.5

Leary Over 0.5 interceptions

Under 45 points

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Leary has thrown 10 interceptions this season, but he’s fortunate the number is that low. Louisville dropped two passes they should’ve had for interceptions, and the Cardinals weren’t the only team this year to turn away gifts from Kentucky’s QB.

Clemson ranked 17th in interception rate and has athletes all over the field. Leary threw interceptions in each of his last three games and he’ll throw another one here.

That is another reason why the Wildcats will struggle to put up more than three touchdowns. Only four teams broke that number this season, and Kentucky’s offense isn’t on the same level as Florida State or Notre Dame.

As for the other two teams? Miami needed double overtime to get 28, and NC State got there with help from a pick-6. I’m not sure the Wildcats will get either of those breaks, and they run one of the slowest offenses in college football to boot.

Finally, I'm taking the Under 45 points. Klubnik will be without one of his top receivers in Collins, and Kentucky’s run defense is solid. It’s hard to see this game turning into a shootout.

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Clemson vs Kentucky spread and Over/Under analysis

Clemson opened as a touchdown favorite, but the departures have seen the public back the Wildcats. Kentucky is now getting 4.5 or 5.0 points depending on the book.

The Wildcats are just 5-5 against the spread this season, and only 1-4 ATS as underdogs. Clemson has covered in four straight games, and is 5-3 ATS as favorites.

The total of 44.5 or 45 points, depending on the site, has also come down by three points. Much like the spread, the public has taken into account the losses for Clemson as well as the offensive concerns for both teams.

I like the Under here as we’ve discussed, and it’s 6-4 in the Tigers' last 10 games. The Over has been the way to go for the Wildcats, however, having hit in six of their last nine contests.