Georgia vs. Florida State (FSU) Prediction, Preview, and Odds
College bowl season is in full swing and that brings us a clash of Power Five programs when a program from the SEC takes on one from the ACC in a matchup of teams that just missed out on the College Football Playoff. The #6 Georgia Bulldogs do battle with the #5 Florida State Seminoles in the Capital One Orange Bowl Saturday afternoon. Georgia was downed 27-24 by #8 Alabama in the SEC Championship Game on December 2, losing outright as a 5.5-point favorite, in their previous game. Florida State downed #14 Louisville 16-6 in the ACC Championship Game on December 2, winning outright as a 1.5-point underdog, in their previous game. In the all-time series between the teams, the Bulldogs own a 6-4-1 advantage, including a 26-13 win in the most recent meeting, which came in the Sugar Bowl on January 1, 2003.
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Georgia Bulldogs Seek to Bounce Back After First Loss in Two Years
Georgia was cruising along as the #1 team in the nation all season long before getting beaten by #8 Alabama in the SEC Championship Game for their first loss since December 4, 2021. As a result, the Bulldogs fell to 12-1 overall after going 8-0 in conference play and were dropped to #6 in the CFP playoffs, missing a chance to become a back-to-back-to-back champion in the CFP era. Against Alabama, Georgia scored the opening touchdown but gave up the next 17 points to trail by 10 at the half. The Bulldogs, despite their best efforts, got no closer than three the rest of the way as Alabama came up with the key plays to stay in front. Georgia held a narrow 321-306 edge in total offense though they were beaten 20-19 in first downs, lost the time of possession battle by a 31:09 to 28:51 margin and committed the game’s lone turnover.
On the season, Georgia stands 10 in the nation in passing offense (305.6 ypg) and 40 in rushing offense with 177.3 yards per contest. The Bulldogs are 9 in the FBS in scoring offense with 38.4 points per game on the season while the team is 9 in scoring defense as they allow 16.6 points a game. Carson Beck is 289 of 399 for 3,738 yards with 22 touchdowns and six interceptions this season. Brock Vandagriff (12 of 18, 165 yards, two TD, 39 rushing yards) and Gunner Stockton (six of nine, 52 yards, INT, 17 rush yards) have seen limited action. Daijun Edwards leads the team on the ground with 157 carries for 819 yards and 11 scores this season. Kendall Milton (112 carries, 686 yards, 12 TD), Dillon Bell (25 carries, 157 yards, two TD) and Cash Jones (17 carries, 129 yards, TD) have also been effective. Brock Bowers leads the team in receptions with 56 for 714 yards and six scores on the year. Dominic Lovett (51 catches, 575 yards, three TD), Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint (32 grabs, 502 yards, four TD), Rara Thomas (23 receptions, 383 yards, TD) and Ladd McConkey (29 catches, 456 yards, two TD) are each over 300 receiving yards this season. Peyton Woodring is 62 of 62 on extra point attempts and 21 of 25 on field goal attempts with a long of 48 this year.
Georgia has a slew of guys in the transfer portal though not a ton of impact players. Vandagriff, wide receiver/punt returner Mekhi Mews and starting linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson, who missed the last four games, are the biggest names there. Bowers and tackle Amarius Mims have opted out for the contest while Thomas and cornerback Julian Humphrey are injury concerns to watch out for in this contest.
Florida State Seminoles Trying to Remain Unbeaten Despite Skeleton Crew
Florida State remained unbeaten as they dropped #14 Louisville in the ACC Championship Game despite having to play their third-string quarterback. Despite that, the Seminoles, who improved to 13-0 on the year and 8-0 in the ACC, became the first unbeaten team to be left out of the CFP. Against Louisville, Florida State led 3-0 after the opening quarter and took the lead for good at 10-3 on a two-yard touchdown run by Lawrence Toafili with 6:20 to play in the first half. The Seminoles were up 10-3 at the half and after three quarters: they didn’t let Louisville closer than four in the final stanza to earn the win. Florida State held a 219-188 edge in total offense, recorded a 12-10 advantage in first downs, owned a 31:28 to 28:32 margin in time of possession and forced the game’s lone turnover.
On the season, Florida State is 42 in the FBS in passing offense with an average of 259.5 yards per game through the air. The Seminoles are 68 in the nation in rushing offense as they put up 156.8 yards per contest on the season. Florida State is 13 among the 133 FBS teams to take the field this season in scoring offense with an average of 37 points per contest. The Seminoles stand 6 in scoring defense as they allow 15.9 points per contest. Jordan Travis is 207 of 324 for 2,756 yards with 20 touchdowns and two interceptions while adding 176 yards plus seven scores on the ground. Tate Rodemaker (32 of 56, 510 yards, five TD) and Brock Glenn (10 of 25, 90 yards, 31 rush yards, TD) have seen work as well. Trey Benson leads the team with 156 carries for 905 yards and 14 scores on the ground. Lawrance Toafili (69 carries, 463 yards, four TD), Rodney Hill (50 carries, 190 yards, TD) and Caziah Holmes (21 carries, 156 yards, two TD) have all been effective in the run game. Keon Coleman leads the team with 50 receptions for 658 yards and 11 scores on the year. Johnny Wilson (41 catches, 617 yards, two TD), Jaheim Bell (39 grabs, 503 yards, two TD), Kyle Morlock (19 receptions, 255 yards), Benson (20 catches, 227 yards, TD) and Ja’Khi Douglas (12 grabs, 230 yards) each are over 200 receiving yards this season. Ryan Fitzgerald has hit all 58 extra point attempts and 18 of 20 on field goal attempts with a long of 48 this season. Tyler Keltner hit his lone extra point attempt while not attempting a field goal this season.
This Florida State program likely will look more like a JV squad than the team we saw all season long. Travis (leg) was lost for the year after he was injured against North Alabama last month. Rodemaker (concussion) was injured and then entered the transfer portal, so Glenn will be under center. There are several other names in the transfer portal but not a lot of major names. The stars are all in the opt-out column: receivers Wilson and Coleman, tight end Bell, running back Benson, defensive end Jared Verse, defensive tackle Fabien Lovett, safety Akeem Dent along with cornerbacks Renardo Green and Jarrion Jones, all starters, have chosen not to take part in this game. In addition, Toafili isn’t on the depth chart after undergoing surgery.
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What once would have been a marquee matchup between a pair of teams that were powerhouses all season long has been tarnished due to injuries and opt-outs. Now we’re looking at a Georgia team that is angry after losing their shot at a third straight title against a Florida State team that has been gutted of most of their star power on the offensive side of the ball. Glenn was less than inspiring in the win over Louisville in the ACC title game and now has less weapons to work with against a team that finished in the top 10 in scoring defense. Georgia is better on both sides of the ball at this point and they should roll past a diminished Seminoles squad to finish the season on a positive note.
Prediction: Georgia Bulldogs -18.5
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Georgia has seen the under post a 7-6 mark in their 13 games this season. The Bulldogs split their six games in relation to the total in their games away from home this season. They have stayed under the number in each of their last three games: road tilts at Tennessee and Georgia Tech plus the SEC title game against Alabama in Atlanta. Florida State has gone over the number in seven of their 13 games this season. The Seminoles stayed under the total in four of their seven games away from Tallahassee this season. Four of their last five games fell short of the number as well. With Florida State depleted and Georgia perhaps slightly disinterested after missing out on the CFP, this game winds up falling short of the number.
Prediction: Under 44.5
Chris King has been immersed in the world of professional and collegiate sports for more than three decades. Whether it's playing pickup games or being involved in organized sports to being a fan, he's checked all the boxes. From the NFL to arena football, the NHL to the KHL, the NBA to the WNBA to college hoops, and even MLB to the KBO. If it's out there, he's covered it and bet on it as well, as Chris has been an expert bettor in his career. Before joining Winners and Whiners back in 2015, his work appeared around the internet and in print. He's written books for Ruckus Books about college basketball, the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, golf, and the World Cup. If you're looking for the inside track on hitting a winner, do yourself a favor and read what Chris has to say.
