Gold: 25 Bold Predictions for the Pac-12 in 2023
Editor’s note: Saturday Out West’s Top 25 preview week continues with columnist Jon Gold’s 25 bold predictions.
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Predicting a repeat Heisman winner? Bold.
Predicting a Utah crash landing? Bolder.
Predicting a rare College Football Playoff berth for the Pac-12? Boldest.
But that’s just 3 examples of going out on a limb. Just a start.
Here’s my 25 boldest predictions in the Pac-12 heading into the 2023 season.
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1. The USC defense will be much improved in 2023
This is as bold as it gets. The Trojans were that bad last year. But some reinforcements arrived — Anthony Lucas, Bear Alexander, Mason Cobb — and USC has plenty of talent returning this year, including Calen Bullock, Shane Lee and Eric Gentry. But talent was not an issue last year, discipline and scheme was. Everything out of Heritage Hall signifies the Trojans will pick their spots more in 2023 and try to hit fewer home runs with fewer strikeouts. That runs counter to everything that Lincoln Riley believes, but he seems to understand his way hasn’t delivered the results he desires.
2. Arizona goes bowling for the 1st time since 2017
With a manageable nonconference slate that should net them a 2-1 start and Pac-12 season-opener at a Stanford squad that will still be learning Troy Taylor’s way, Arizona should be halfway to bowl eligibility by the end of September. Looming tests against Washington and USC will cause the Jedd Fisch train to lose some steam, but between Washington State, UCLA, Colorado and Arizona State, you’d think there are 3 wins in there for an ascendant Wildcats squad that is champing at the bit to get to the more even playing field of the Big 12.
3. Kenny Dillingham sticks with Trenton Bourguet … for now
The quarterback battle in Tempe is among the most heated in the country, and not just because the average temperature is somewhere around 186 degrees. Between Bourguet, Notre Dame transfer Drew Pyne, freshman Jaden Rashada and BYU transfer Jacob Conover, Kenny Dillingham has a decision to make. After completing better than 70% of his passes last year once he took over for Emory Jones, Bourguet made a solid case to hold onto the job. While he was neck-and-neck with Pyne early in fall camp, he should get the first crack at the gig, but it might not last for long. After opening with Southern Utah, the Sun Devils get Oklahoma State, Fresno State and USC in consecutive weeks. That won’t be pretty for a rebuilding team.
4. Colorado exceeds expectations, just not Coach Prime’s
The Buffaloes are the toughest call this season, with Deion Sanders taking over for the completely ineffectual Karl Dorrell. But this experiment will be fascinating. Can one cult of personality convince a team made up of strangers to ignore the doubters? Coach Prime is swag personified, and if Colorado’s hodgepodge mix of transfer talent can somehow gel quickly, it will be the story of the year. I’m actually bullish on the Buffs — I’ve got them at 5-7 — but that’s not the kind of splash that Prime is predicting.
5. Bo Nix and Will Stein start a beautiful friendship
There was no more beautiful reunion in college football last year than Nix and Dillingham, his former Auburn offensive coordinator in 2019. Nix and Dilly had a clear kinship that manifested into a brilliant first season in Eugene. It turned out to be the only season, as Dillingham returned to his desert roots in Tempe. Now Nix begins anew once more with Stein, the young former UTSA offensive coordinator. The Roadrunners’ offense thrived under Stein, who guided quarterback Frank Harris to a Conference USA Most Valuable Player trophy. The UTSA offense ranked No. 9 nationally in total offense (486.1 YPG), No. 12 in scoring offense (38.7 PPG) and No. 12 in passing offense (308.6 YPG), topping 30 points in 12 of 13 games and 40-plus points in 7 games.
6. DJ Uiagalelei plays great for Oregon State … but isn’t the missing piece
After a mostly forgettable run in Clemson, the west coast kid’s move closer to his Cali roots drew much scrutiny this offseason. Would DJU rekindle the mojo that led him to a 5-star rating in high school? Or have the frustrations of the last two years — 9 TDs and 10 picks in 2021, losing the starting gig in 2022 — taken their toll? I’m expecting a better-than-solid season out of the Beavers’ new QB. But he’s not the savior. Oregon State’s schedule ends with a giant thud, with Washington and Oregon waiting around until the last 2 games. The Beavers could very well be undefeated before then, but those 2 games will be the difference between another terrific season and immortality.
7. The Dante Moore Era begins in Westwood
UCLA fans are itching to see Moore — the program’s best quarterback recruit ever — get the keys from the opening kickoff. He’s going to have to earn it, though. Chip Kelly is not going to play the PR game. If Ethan Garbers is the man for the job, he’s going to get it. But Moore will fend him off in fall camp and settle in quite quickly. The Bruins have a breezy schedule and moderate expectations. There will be a few slip-ups, including a stubbed toe late in the year with one of my biggest upset predictions of the year — just wait for my UCLA Crystal Ball! — but Moore will ride out the storm to have one of the best seasons by a freshman QB in Bruins history. He’ll be ready to bust out when UCLA heads to the Big Ten next year.
8. The Justin Wilcox Era ends in Cal
Whether by his own doing or the school’s, it just feels like the Wilcox Era is winding down in Berkeley. It just hasn’t worked out for him and the Bears, for so many reasons, and with the program thrust into pure chaos because of realignment, it’s hard to imagine him clinging on to the gig for dear life. He is a dynamic defensive mind who will have plenty of options if he decides to move on, and Cal could want a fresh start as it explores a new horizon, especially if the Bears don’t find a soft landing into a Power 4 conference.
9. Troy Taylor brings peace and love to Palo Alto
Suddenly thrust into one of the weirdest situations in college football, it’ll be on Taylor to somehow field a competitive team in 2023 even as Stanford’s future looks murky. Stanford needs to land in the Big Ten or the ACC to remain even halfway relevant, but that is a story for another day. For now, the new Cardinal coach — who takes over for long-time head coach David Shaw — will be tasked with keeping his players’ heads on straight. Luckily, he’s a charming guy and a terrific communicator.
10. Michael Penix Jr. somehow tops himself
After leading the country in passing yardage per game, can Penix really get that much better? Well, yes. The Huskies return one of the best offenses in the country, and it says a lot that they broke the bank to retain offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, even if he wasn’t really going anywhere. There might not be a better battery in the game than Penix and wideouts Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk, and the Washington offensive line should be stout. I’m not putting 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns past Penix.
11. As good as the top Pac-12 passers are, the bottom rung will be equally as bad
If there is a reverse Heisman Trophy to hand out, the Pac-12 just might get that one as well. Between Cal’s Sam Jackson IV and Stanford’s Ari Patu, the Bay Area will be no man’s land in 2023. Neither has much experience at the collegiate level. If the Bears and Cardinal combine to win 6 games, it will be a shocker.
12. Utah flames out in bid for 3rd straight conference title
The Utes have been terrific the past 2 years, earning surprise back-to-back titles. The first, in 2021, was about taking advantage of a down conference, as both USC and Washington went 4-8. With both teams resurgent in 2022 and 5 conference teams finishing with double-digit wins, the Utes still won the league, beating the Trojans twice, including the conference title game. That speaks volumes about the kind of machine that Kyle Whittingham has built in Salt Lake City. Unfortunately for the Utes, between Cam Rising’s lingering injury and other teams putting a target on their back, this will be the year things crash.
13. Oregon boasts the conference’s leading rusher and receiver
Between Bucky Irving and Troy Franklin, the Ducks boast 2 of the best skill position players in the conference and both are set up for huge seasons. Irving is the league’s leading rusher, and he’ll shine once more even as he splits carries in a packed Oregon backfield. Franklin, meanwhile, is Nix’s clear-cut No. 1, while the stars at USC and Washington will be battling over the ball all year.
14. 6 conference RBs will break the 1,000-yard mark
Irving isn’t the Pac-12’s only star running back. In fact, in what should be a banner year for Pac-12 QBs, half the league will have 1,000-yard rushers. UCLA’s Carson Steele, Utah’s Ja’Quinden Jackson, OSU’s Damien Martinez, Cal’s Jaydn Ott and Stanford’s EJ Smith will join Irving among the league’s prolific backs.
15. The Pac-12 will field 7 bowl teams for a 2nd straight year
Last year, the conference went 3-4 in bowl season, with Oregon State (Las Vegas Bowl), Oregon (Holiday Bowl) and Washington (Alamo Bowl) prevailing, while Washington State (Los Angeles Bowl), UCLA (Sun Bowl), USC (Cotton Bowl) and Utah (Rose Bowl) all lost. This year, 7 teams will qualify once more, though I have Arizona going and Wazzu sidelined.
16. Washington State comes back to earth
Before Mike Leach was hired in 2012, Wazzu had only been to 10 bowl games. Since 2013, the Cougars have been to 8, but Jake Dickert will struggle to make it a 9th this year. He has rallied the troops since the collapse of the Pac-12 with a message that he’s putting everything into this year, this team. That could land. But a tough schedule won’t be easy to navigate. After back-to-back 7-win seasons, I peg them to finish 5-7.
17. The Oregon offensive line won’t be what it was last year
Despite retaining a ton of talent up front, the Ducks line will be in store for a change after losing 4 starters in Alex Forsyth, TJ Bass, Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu and Ryan Walk. But the biggest adjustment will be losing former OL coach Adrian Klemm, who left for the New England Patriots. Oregon has to hope for a unit that includes the likes of Josh Conerly, Ajani Cornelius and Jackson Powers-Johnson can gel quickly.
18. Jonathan Smith runs it back
No team impressed me more last year than Oregon State, which has followed the Utah model of recruiting cultural fits who take some time to develop. And develop they did last year — the Beavers improved from 7-6 to 10-3 and were 2 3-point losses from a 12-win season. Smith just gets it — culture, discipline, conditioning and more — and Oregon State should tack on another 10-win season. That’s the standard now, even if they don’t reach even greater heights.
19. EJ Smith runs it forward
The Stanford running back is primed for big things in the new offensive scheme under Taylor. Smith had 206 rushing yards in 2 games last year before being lost with a season-ending injury. He has the talent to get right back into the swing of things, and he should thrive under Taylor, who coached new ASU running back Cameron Skattebo to Big Sky player of the year honors with Sacramento State last year.
20. Washington’s Big 3 finish as a top-2 trio nationally
It’s going to be tough for anyone to top Ohio State’s wide receiver trio of Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka and Julian Fleming, but Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk will give them a run for their money. The Huskies’ receiver corps is the best in the Pac-12 in recent memory. Three 1,000-yard seasons is not out of the question.
21. UCLA’s Laiatu Latu wins Pac-12 defensive player of the year
Coming off a bounce-back season that few foretold, the Bruins’ veteran stud brings a whole different level of intensity to his position as the team’s heart and soul. He’ll have some big-time challengers in Utah’s Junior Tafuna, USC’s Calen Bullock and Washington’s Bralen Trice, but my money is on Latu being utterly dominant this year.
22. Caleb Williams wins a 2nd consecutive Heisman
Can it happen? History is certainly working against the USC quarterback becoming just the 2nd repeat Heisman winner, but Williams has a thing or two working for him, as well. First and foremost, a thriving partnership with Lincoln Riley. Second, the input of Kliff Kingsbury. Third, a terrific supporting cast. And most of all, the most talent in the country. Williams is a star and a probable No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Let’s see him crowned again.
23. USC will be the Pac-12’s first CFP team since 2016 — and last
The Trojans aren’t perfect — far from it — but they have one of the best offenses in the game and a defense that is expected to take a big leap forward in 2023. If Year 1 of the Riley Era was about introducing a new scheme and a new style while righting the ship, Year 2 will be about shoring up the loose ends — poor tackling, over pursuit, hero ball — and getting down to business. If USC truly takes the leap on that side of the ball, the sky is the limit. It’ll be a fitting exit for the former conference standard-bearer.
24. The Trojans lose in the national championship game
Alabama is down a peg or two. Michigan and Ohio State will beat each other up. LSU isn’t quite there. Georgia is … Georgia. And the Trojans will be in it until the very end.
25. The Pac-12 will go out with a bang
So, this will be it. My boldest prediction of the year? One great swan song for the Conference of Champions until chaos and misery sets in. We’ll miss it.
Saturday Out West columnist Jon Gold has won multiple state and national awards covering the Pac-12. You can read more of his work at www.ByJonGold.com and follow him on Instagram at @JonahMountain.
