College Basketball: Pacific-12 Conference

Gold: Which Pac-12 football over/under props are the best bets? Which are the worst?

saturdayoutwest.com

18 July 2023

Gold: Which Pac-12 football over/under props are the best bets? Which are the worst?

You say under, I say over, you say tom-ay-to, I say tom-ah-to. Look, as long as we don’t tie, and that’s what half points are for.

Let’s have it settled on the field, binary-code style. Will Caleb Williams finish with more than 33 touchdowns next year or won’t he? Adding the Pac-12’s leading receiver from a year ago doesn’t hurt.

And what about Michael Penix Jr., who returns perhaps the league’s top trio of receivers?

Then there’s Bo Nix, who once more must tackle life after Kenny Dillingham. Can he convert some of his 14 rushing touchdowns to passing scores?

FanDuel is offering prop bets on those three Heisman candidates, as well as a host of other 2023 college football regular season prop bets. Some are more enticing than others (Penix!).

Here’s a look at FanDuel’s Pac-12 prop bet offerings …

USC QB Caleb Williams

Passing yards: 3,500.5 (-112)

After throwing for 3,712 passing yards last year while USC’s defense let the opposition hang around in defensive coordinator Alex Grinch’s first year. That left Williams throwing deep into games. It’s not even fair to say they were padding his stats — they were truly in preservation mode.

It’s hard to imagine the Trojans are in quite those dire circumstances on a regular basis this year.

What’s not so hard to imagine is Williams and the USC offense taking a big step forward in Year 2 of Lincoln Riley’s system. We’re talking new wrinkles and nuances that were evident in the spring.

Passing touchdowns: 33.5 (O -108, U -118)

So, basically, zero drop off. Williams had 34 regular-season passing touchdowns last year, and that took some truly heroic performances.

He had 14 touchdown tosses in a 13-day stretch alone — 5 against Utah in a 43-42 loss, 5 against Arizona in a 45-37 win, 4 against Cal in a 41-35 win — with another 4-touchdown game at Stanford in Week 2.

But he had to do so, so much last year as USC’s defense struggled. The Trojans added some nice transfer talent, and you’d think — hope? pray? — that the defense can do more so Williams does less.

The guy finished with 52 total touchdowns last year, 2 more than Bryce Young in his Heisman-winning 2021 campaign and in 1 fewer game. Young had 31 total touchdowns a year later.

Bottom line: Taking the over on yards and under on touchdowns — USC’s defense will be improved, but Williams will still be chucking it in the 4th quarter.

Washington QB Michael Penix

Passing yards: 3600.5 (-112)

This one feels like a set up.

Penix had 3,640 yards … in the first 10 games alone. He finished with a nation-leading 357.0 passing yards per game.

And unlike the Trojans’ almost comical defense last year, the Huskies were good on defense and should be again. But Penix had some absurd chunk plays last year, and, surrounded by much of the same talent, he should thrive again.

Passing touchdowns: 33.5 (O -108, U -118)

While Penix almost always delivered in terms of yardage — he only finished with under 298 yards once in the regular season — his touchdowns were inconsistent.

He had two games with one score and one game with zero. There were highs, including 4 4-touchdown games and a 3-score Apple Cup performance in a win over Washington State, but there is room for more.

Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk could easily each have 10 touchdowns.

Bottom line: I’ll take the over on both.

Oregon QB Bo Nix

Passing yards: 2900.5 (-112)

Another number that feels incredibly low after Nix passed for 3,388 regular-season yards in 2022. And that was with stinkers against Georgia (173 yards) and Stanford (161).

The Ducks’ receiving corps is improved this year with the additions of guys like Tez Johnson, Traeshon Holden and Gary Bryant Jr., but one major question mark is the transition from former offensive coordinator and new Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham to new OC Will Stein. Nix had the two best seasons of his college career under Dillingham, first with the Auburn Tigers and then with the Ducks last year.

If Stein introduces of the downfield element and Nix trusts his arm a little bit more than his legs this year, it’s easy to see him blowing past the 3K mark.

Passing touchdowns: 24.5 (O -118, U -108)

About those legs, though.

Nix led all FBS quarterbacks with 14 rushing touchdowns last year, to go along with 27 passing touchdowns. He torched Eastern Washington for 5 passing touchdowns a piece, but he had two games with zero passing touchdowns and another with one, while rushing for multiple scores 5 times.

He could very well halve his rushing touchdowns — he had 7 scores on the ground in 2019 and 2020 — while adding 3 or 4 passing scores. That would blow past the over/under.

Bottom line: Like Penix, I’m a go for both overs.