2023 Pac-12 Conference Preview & Predictions
The Trojans will be double-digit favorites in their first six games before facing Notre Dame in South Bend on Oct. 14, after which the schedule stiffens to include home games against Utah and Washington around a trip to Oregon.
The Conference of Quarterbacks
The Pac-12’s going-away party will include some of the best quarterbacks in Division I. Williams opened as the +500 favorite to win the Heisman, Penix (+1600) is the seventh choice and Nix (+1800) is the ninth. The ACC is the only other conference with as many as two of the top nine preseason Heisman candidates, Florida State’s Jordan Travis (+1200) and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik (+1400).
— CFB Focus �� (@cffmwachsman) August 7, 2023
That list does not include Rising, who has led Utah to two consecutive Pac-12 titles after taking over as the starter three games into the 2021 season. Penix and Williams were 2-3 in passing yards in Division I last season, and Williams led Division I with 42 touchdown passes. Williams was fifth in passing efficiency and Nix was seventh.
Williams was injured early in the Trojans’ 47-24 loss to Utah in the 2022 title game, and Rising was hurt in the Utes’ 35-21 loss to Penn State in the Rose Bowl. Rising, recovering from a torn ACL, opened fall camp practicing “with limitations.”
Dissecting the Schedule
Pac-12 teams play nine conference games apiece, and the two teams with the best records meet in the championship game. UCLA gets off the lightest, missing both Oregon and Washington, but the Bruins do not appear to be a particularly potent challenger after losing quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and running back Zach Charbonnet.
Washington gets Oregon and Utah at home, and the Huskies will be favored in their first five before meeting the Ducks on Oct. 14 after both teams’ bye week. USC misses darkhorse contender Oregon State, which added former Clemson underachiever DJ Uiagalelei at quarterback. Oregon also plays Utah on the road.
The Utes have the most difficult nonconference schedule, opening against Florida and at Baylor, and also and play USC, Washington and Oregon State on the road. That’s likely a reason they are lower than USC in the CFB win totals.
Pac-12 Prediction
While USC can argue it would have made the CFP but for Williams’ hamstring injury in the Pac-12 title game, a lot of things went right for the Trojans last year — plus-22 turnover margin, a schedule that missed both Washington and Oregon. The Trojans’ defense will be tested even further by Penix and Nix this season.
Penix excelled in first-year coach Kalen DeBoer’s system a year ago, and top Huskies’ receiver Rome Odunze is projected to be a first-round pick in the 2024 NFL draft. Nix and 1,000-yard rusher Bucky Irving give the Ducks another productive group on that side of the ball. Utah traditionally plays the best defense in the conference, but the schedule and Rising’s recovery are issues.
